FXUS61 KRNK 200635

AFDRNK



Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Blacksburg VA

235 AM EDT Fri Mar 20 2026



.WHAT HAS CHANGED...



Aviation update.



Otherwise no significant changes.



&&



.KEY MESSAGES...



1) Warming trend into the upcoming weekend.



2) Chances of showers will occur on Friday night and also on

Monday due to weak frontal passages.



&&



.DISCUSSION...



KEY MESSAGE 1: Warming trend into the upcoming weekend.



Today, a sharp trough moves off the East Coast aloft, while a  

large ridge remains entrenched over the Desert SW. Over the Mid 

Atlantic, fast NW flow aloft will keep upper level energy in the

area, providing for increasing cloud cover and chances for 

precipitation tonight into Saturday morning. For the remainder 

of the weekend, expect partly to mostly sunny skies developing 

by Sunday. This along with SW winds at the surface, 

compressional warming ahead of a cold front, and 850mb 

temperatures increasing to 13 to 15C will support very warm 

temperatures Sunday. Expect temperatures over 20 degrees above 

normal, with highs in the mid to upper 70s for the mountains, 

and in the low to mid 80s for the Piedmont. This is supported by

NAEFS 850mb temperatures anomalies of 2 to 3 standard 

deviations. 



A trough will settle south Sunday night into Monday, pushing a 

elongated cold front through the region. This will knock down 

temperatures back closer to normal for the mountains Monday 

while the Piedmont hangs on to 70s for one more day. High 

pressure settles in for mid week, with temperatures hovering 

around normal. 





KEY MESSAGES 2: Chances of showers will occur on Friday night

and also on Monday due to weak frontal passages.





While a strong upper level ridge locks into place over the

southwest United States for the next several days, this 

synoptic pattern will keep a lingering upper level trough over 

the East Coast. As a result, the Appalachian Mountains will 

remain in a persistent northwest flow with shortwave troughs 

diving southeastward from the Great Lakes. One of these 

shortwave troughs should bring a weak cold front by Friday 

evening. Showers and thunderstorms will cross central West 

Virginia but likely decay as it hits the Alleghany Front and 

notably drier air with dewpoints only reaching the 40s after 

sunset. Thus, just a few rumbles of thunder are possible in 

southeast West Virginia with perhaps some gusty winds as the 

activity weakens along the Interstate 81 corridor on Friday 

night.



After the aforementioned weak cold front crosses Virginia, the 

frontal boundary should dissipate across North Carolina on

Saturday. A slight chance of showers exists for the northwest 

North Carolina mountains until this boundary completely 

dissolves. Drier weather should resume during Saturday night 

through Sunday until the next shortwave trough arrives by early 

Monday morning. This particular trough is a little more robust 

than the previous one. Therefore, it appears to boost more 

moisture into the Appalachian Mountains and provide a chance of 

showers all the way through the Piedmont on Monday. Winds could 

become a little gusty on Monday along the higher elevations as 

this trough crosses overhead.



&&



.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...

VFR conditions continue through today, with increasing mid and

high cloud, especially in the afternoon and evening. A weak

disturbance moves through the area tonight, and may bring light

rain showers to some of the mountain terminals after 21/00Z. BLF

and LWB may also have a rumble of thunder. A strong LLJ develops

around 21/00Z as well, and LLWS is likely everywhere but DAN and

LYH during the overnight hours. Ceilings may drop down to MVFR

around or after 21/06Z and continue into Saturday morning for 

BLF, LWB, BCB, and perhaps ROA. 



Light and variable winds this morning will become SW and

increase to 9-12 kts with gusts to 20-25 kts by this 

afternoon. Expect speeds to drop off some after 23Z. 





EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...Expect the weekend to be VFR with

relatively light WSW winds. A frontal system will drop in from

the north Sunday night into Monday, bringing another chance for

rain and sub-VFR conditions mainly to the mountains. Expect

gusty NW winds Monday behind the front, with gusts between 

20-30 kts throughout the area. Drier weather returns Tuesday and 

Wednesday.



&&



.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

VA...None.

NC...None.

WV...None.



&&



$$



DISCUSSION...PW/SH

AVIATION...SH