FXUS61 KRNK 192309

AFDRNK



Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Blacksburg VA

709 PM EDT Thu Mar 19 2026



.WHAT HAS CHANGED...



Aviation Update.





&&



.KEY MESSAGES...

1) Warming trend into the upcoming weekend.



2) Chance for measurable precipitation minimal until 

passage of a cold front Monday.



&&



.DISCUSSION...

KEY MESSAGE 1: Warming trend by Friday. 



Amplitude of the upper level trough flattens with time with

upper level flow becoming more zonal by the weekend. This will 

result in gradually moderating temperatures with readings near 

normal Thursday...5 degrees above normal Friday, 10 degrees 

above normal Saturday and 15 degrees (possibly as much as 20 

degrees) above normal Sunday. That said, it is roller coaster 

season (spring) so we take a nose dive again Monday with the 

passage of a cold front. 





KEY MESSAGE 2: Chance for measurable precipitation minimal 

until passage of a cold front Monday.



A surface front will drop south Monday, which will in turn bring

a renewed chance of showers to the forecast area. At the 

moment, expecting just light rainfall amounts of less the 0.25 

inches given lack of moisture associated with the northern 

stream dominated system. This front will quickly depart by 

Monday night and strong surface high pressure will build 

overhead, resulting in cooler temperatures and dry conditions 

again for the beginning of next week to middle of next week.



&&



.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...

VFR conditions across the area this evening, with mostly clear

skies, aside from some orographic cirrus that developed this

afternoon. This is slowly dissipating, and clear skies are

expected through the overnight. Cloud cover will start to

increase from the west as a disturbance approaches the area by

Friday afternoon. Skies become BKN to OVC first for KLWB and 

KBLF around 18Z or so, and then spreads eastward. 



Ceilings don't look to get below VFR until after the end of the

current TAF, after 00Z Saturday, also when precipitation reaches

the area terminals.



Winds go light and variable during the overnight, becoming

southwesterly after 12Z or so, with gusts increasing to 15 to 25

knots by 18Z. 



EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK... 

Quiet weather to likely keep all airports at VFR until Friday 

evening when another disturbance goes through to offer a chance 

of precipitation to the region. A separate frontal system may 

pass through early next week to provide a better chance of rain 

for all airports. Main difference with this event is the cold 

front will bring some wind with it with gusts between 15-25 kts 

throughout the area. Drier weather returns Tuesday.



&&



.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

VA...None.

NC...None.

WV...None.



&&



$$



DISCUSSION...BMG/WP

AVIATION...AS/BMG/WP