FXUS61 KRNK 191746

AFDRNK



Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Blacksburg VA

146 PM EDT Thu Mar 19 2026



.WHAT HAS CHANGED...

Aviation has been updated.



Lowered high temperatures for this afternoon to take into

account persistent cloud cover across a portion of the forecast

area, which is limiting daytime heating.



Otherwise, not much change was needed beyond today/tonight

timeframe.



&&



.KEY MESSAGES...

1) Warming trend into the upcoming weekend.



2) Chance for measurable precipitation minimal until 

passage of a cold front Monday.



&&



.DISCUSSION...

KEY MESSAGE 1: Warming trend by Friday. 



Amplitude of the upper level trough flattens with time with

upper level flow becoming more zonal by the weekend. This will 

result in gradually moderating temperatures with readings near 

normal Thursday...5 degrees above normal Friday, 10 degrees 

above normal Saturday and 15 degrees (possibly as much as 20 

degrees) above normal Sunday. That said, it is roller coaster 

season (spring) so we take a nose dive again Monday with the 

passage of a cold front. 





KEY MESSAGE 2: Chance for measurable precipitation minimal 

until passage of a cold front Monday.



A surface front will drop south Monday, which will in turn bring

a renewed chance of showers to the forecast area. At the 

moment, expecting just light rainfall amounts of less the 0.25 

inches given lack of moisture associated with the northern 

stream dominated system. This front will quickly depart by 

Monday night and strong surface high pressure will build 

overhead, resulting in cooler temperatures and dry conditions 

again for the beginning of next week to middle of next week.



&&



.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...

VFR conditions expected for the 24 hour TAF period. Light winds

this afternoon will go mainly calm overnight. Winds remain on

the lighter side tomorrow. Some persistent cirrus clouds along

the Blue Ridge, generally in the 10kft to 15kft range. Should

see this gradually taper off through tonight.





EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...

Quiet weather to likely keep all airports at VFR until Friday 

evening when another disturbance goes through to offer a chance of 

precipitation to the region. A separate frontal system may pass

through early next week to provide a better chance of rain for 

all airports. Main difference with this event is the cold front 

will bring some wind with it with gusts between 15-25 kts 

throughout the area.



&&



.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

VA...None.

NC...None.

WV...None.



&&



$$



DISCUSSION...BMG/WP

AVIATION...BMG/WP