FXUS61 KRNK 190543 CCA AFDRNK Area Forecast Discussion...CORRECTED National Weather Service Blacksburg VA 143 AM EDT Thu Mar 19 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Aviation has been updated. No major changes to the forecast. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Warming trend into the upcoming weekend. 2) Chance for measurable precipitation minimal until passage of a cold front Monday. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1: Warming trend after Wednesday. Amplitude of the upper level trough flattens with time with upper level flow becoming more zonal by the weekend. This will result in gradually moderating temperatures with readings near normal Thursday...5 degrees above normal Friday, 10 degrees above normal Saturday and 15 degrees (possibly as much as 20 degrees) above normal Sunday. That said, it is roller coaster season (spring) so we take a nose dive again Monday with the passage of a cold front. KEY MESSAGE 2: Chance for measurable precipitation minimal until passage of a cold front Monday. Looking ahead to the extended period (Days 3-7), the overarching synoptic pattern will be dominated by broad upper troughing across the eastern U.S., with ridging anchored out West. For the central Appalachians and Mid-Atlantic, this generally favors an unsettled pattern, but pinning down the daily sensible weather details remains highly problematic. Current assessments of deterministic guidance (GFS, ECMWF, CMC), as well as the AI models, suggest they are struggling significantly with the evolution of the pattern. Specifically, they appear to be ejecting shortwaves out of the Rockies and toward the eastern seaboard far too quickly. A prime example of this is the frontal wave expected to develop over the central U.S. on Sunday. The operational suites and AI models have consistently been rushing this feature eastward toward our area. Furthermore, there has been a continued northward trend regarding the track of this frontal wave and its associated warm front across the Midwest, which will ultimately dictate our precipitation timing and amounts. Because of these persistent fast biases, deterministic and AI model skill essentially plummets from Day 5 onward for our CWA. Given the high uncertainty, we will be heavily discounting the operational runs for the middle and latter portions of the extended forecast. The most prudent approach at this range is to stick strictly to the National Blend of Models (NBM). The NBM currently aligns well with the broader, smoother consensus of the GEFS, EPS, and CMC ensemble means, which should help mitigate the poor run-to-run continuity seen in the deterministic models. && .AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... VFR cigs this morning will scatter out this afternoon. Winds stay light and shift from southwest to west through the period. EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK... Quiet weather to likely keep all airports at VFR until Friday evening when another disturbance goes through to offer a chance of precipitation to the region. A separate frontal system may pass through early next week to provide a better chance of rain for all airports. Main difference with this event is the cold front will bring some wind with it with gusts between 15-25 kts throughout the area. && .RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VA...None. NC...None. WV...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...PM/WP AVIATION...CG/WP