FXUS61 KRNK 052350 AFDRNK Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Blacksburg VA 750 PM EDT Tue May 5 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Aviation updated for the 00Z/8 PM TAFs. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Several waves of showers/few storms expected late tonight through Thursday. 2) Shower chances again over the weekend into next Monday. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1...Several waves of shower/storm chances into Thursday. Upper wave and warm front enters the area tonight and will bring increasing chances for showers especially in the mountains. A brief lull possible Wednesday before the next wave with the front arrives. There will a train of low pressure waves along the front as it moves through into Thursday and most areas should see measurable rainfall, with a half inch to an inch expected. However, amounts have trended lower today, but any rain will be welcomed considering the ongoing widespread drought. Thunderstorms with heavy downpours could lead to 1 to 2 inch amounts in a few spots, with models centering the better probability of this happening over the NC mountains into far southwest VA. Some uncertainty on coverage of storms given substantial cloud cover and continued showery activity, limiting instability. Main front approaches the region Wednesday evening, so this period would be the most favorable for storms. High pressure builds in Friday with dry weather returning along with cooler temperatures. KEY MESSAGE 2... Shower chances this weekend into Monday. The broad upper-level low hovering over eastern Canada will serve as anchor for cyclonic flow and multiple shortwave energies near the base of the mean trough. The trailing end of a previous cold front will stall over/near the Gulf Coast and Southeast and will interact with warm Gulf moisture early in the period. This will bring additional shower and thunderstorm chances across the area through the weekend. In addition, another front moves in Monday bringing a better potential for showers/storms. Temperatures warm back to at or just above normal over the weekend into Monday. && .AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... VFR conditions will persist through most of the overnight period, with ceilings expected to fall to MVFR/IFR as rain enters the lower Mid-Atlantic from west to east during the 09Z to 12Z timeframe. Rain is forecast to persist through around 18Z Wednesday before transitioning to sporadic shower activity, intermixed with breaks during the afternoon. Another wave of more steady rainfall, possibly with occasional thunderstorms, is forecast to pass across the region beginning around 21Z, resulting in localized reductions in visibility. Winds will be breezy during this TAF period. Expect winds of 10-15 kts out of the south and southwest, gusting up to 25 kts at times at high elevation sites. Confidence in the above scenario is above average. EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK... Sub-VFR conditions are forecasted to persist Wednesday night and Thursday, with showers and possible thunderstorms. Expect improving conditions Friday into early Saturday, however sub- VFR ceilings may redevelop on Saturday afternoon, with scattered showers and a few storms, especially across the mountains. && .RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VA...None. NC...None. WV...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...BMG/NF AVIATION...NF