FXUS61 KRNK 051832 AFDRNK Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Blacksburg VA 232 PM EDT Tue May 5 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Aviation updated. Rainfall amounts have decreased some for Wednesday/Thursday. A few thunderstorms possible Wednesday evening. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Several waves of showers/few storms expected late tonight through Thursday. 2) Shower chances again over the weekend into next Monday. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1...Several waves of shower/storm chances into Thursday. Upper wave and warm front enters the area tonight and will bring increasing chances for showers especially in the mountains. A brief lull possible Wednesday before the next wave with the front arrives. There will a train of low pressure waves along the front as it moves through into Thursday and most areas should see measurable rainfall, with a half inch to an inch expected. However, amounts have trended lower today, but any rain will be welcomed considering the ongoing widespread drought. Thunderstorms with heavy downpours could lead to 1 to 2 inch amounts in a few spots, with models centering the better probability of this happening over the NC mountains into far southwest VA. Some uncertainty on coverage of storms given substantial cloud cover and continued showery activity, limiting instability. Main front approaches the region Wednesday evening, so this period would be the most favorable for storms. High pressure builds in Friday with dry weather returning along with cooler temperatures. KEY MESSAGE 2... Shower chances this weekend into Monday. The broad upper-level low hovering over eastern Canada will serve as anchor for cyclonic flow and multiple shortwave energies near the base of the mean trough. The trailing end of a previous cold front will stall over/near the Gulf Coast and Southeast and will interact with warm Gulf moisture early in the period. This will bring additional shower and thunderstorm chances across the area through the weekend. In addition, another front moves in Monday bringing a better potential for showers/storms. Temperatures warm back to at or just above normal over the weekend into Monday. && .AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... VFR conditions will be widespread for the remainder of today and through most of the overnight period. As a front approaches early Wednesday morning, an abundance of moisture will begin filling in cloud ceilings and lowering cigs as well. Mountain areas (BLF/LWB) may drop into MVFR around daybreak. Rain will begin to fall in the west around 8AM for BLF/LWB, and continue to spread eastward through the morning. Most TAF sites should experience a period of rain showers Wednesday morning. Winds will be breezy during this TAF period. Expect winds of 10-15 kts out of the south and southwest, gusting up to 25 kts at times at high elevation sites. Confidence in the above scenario is above average. EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK... Sub VFR conditions are possible Wednesday and Thursday with showers and possible thunderstorms. Should have improving conditions Friday into Saturday but some sub-VFR cigs again possible Saturday with scattered showers/few storms especially the mountains. && .FIRE WEATHER... Increased fire danger for the southern Shenandoah Valley, VA Foothills and Piedmont through late this afternoon. Have seen conditions become increasingly gusty over the past few hours and areas that have been able to sufficiently mix have seen dew points fall into the 30s and 40s. This has resulted in RH values into the lower 30 percent range. A combination of these low RH values and gusty southerly winds will produce continued fire danger through this evening. Ever increasing canopy from greenup may help limit the upper end potential, but dry underbrush is still susceptible to rapid fire spread. && .RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VA...None. NC...None. WV...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...BMG/WP AVIATION...VFJ/WP FIRE WEATHER...AS/BMG/WP