FXUS61 KRNK 050539 AFDRNK Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Blacksburg VA 139 AM EDT Tue May 5 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Aviation updated. Overall forecast with midweek system has not changed. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Several waves of showers/few storms expected late tonight through Thursday. 2) Shower chances again over the weekend into next Monday. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1...Several waves of shower/storm chances into Thursday. Starting out dry today with some cirrus at times. Should be breezy with southwest winds gusting 20 to 25 mph at times. Highs will be in the 70s, with lower 80s east. Upper wave and warm front enters the area tonight and will bring increasing chances for showers especially in the mountains. A brief lull possible Wednesday before the next wave with the front arrives. There will a train of low pressure waves along the front as it moves through into Thursday and most areas should see measurable rainfall, with a half inch to an inch expected. Thunderstorms with heavy downpours could lead to 1 to 2 inch amounts in a few spots, with models centering the better probability of this happening over the NC mountains into far southwest VA. High pressure builds in Friday with dry weather returning along with cooler temperatures. KEY MESSAGE 2... Shower chances this weekend into Monday. The broad upper-level low hovering over eastern Canada will serve as anchor for cyclonic flow and multiple shortwave energies near the base of the mean trough. The trailing end of a previous cold front will stall over/near the Gulf Coast and Southeast and will interact with warm Gulf moisture early in the period. This will bring additional shower and thunderstorm chances across the area through the weekend. In addition, another front moves in Monday bringing a better potential for showers/storms. Temperatures warm back to at or just above normal over the weekend into Monday. && .AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... VFR flight conditions will continue over the region through Tuesday evening. Some stronger winds above surface inversion may lead to low level wind shear around LYH early this morning. Once mixing commences after 12z, all sites should have gusty south to southwest winds in the 15 to 25kt range through the day. Clouds increase toward the end of the period but cigs should mainly be in the 8-12kt range, while winds also weaken after sunset. EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK... Sub VFR conditions are possible Wednesday and Thursday with showers and possible thunderstorms. Should have improving conditions Friday into Saturday but some sub-VFR cigs again possible Saturday with scattered showers/few storms especially the mountains. && .FIRE WEATHER... Increased Fire Danger statement for the southern Shenandoah Valley, VA Foothills and Piedmont for Tuesday afternoon. Widespread drought continues over the region and with a lack of any widespread rainfall the past several days. Strong southwest flow increases during the day tomorrow ahead of an approaching front from the west. Although flow from the south/southwest usually brings a more moist airmass, dry air aloft, along with an increasing low level jet may allow for enhanced mixing of lower dew points to the surface by the afternoon. Dew points falling into the 30s and daytime high temperatures into the 70s to low 80s could result in min RH in the 20 percent range. Sustained winds of 10 to 15mph, with some gusts up to 25-30 mph, are expected. A combination of low RH and gusty southerly winds will increase fire danger across most of the region tomorrow. Ever increasing canopy from greenup may help limit the upper end potential, but dry underbrush is still susceptible to rapid fire spread. && .RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VA...None. NC...None. WV...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...BMG/WP AVIATION...AS/WP FIRE WEATHER...AS/BMG/WP