FXUS61 KRNK 042304 AFDRNK Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Blacksburg VA 704 PM EDT Mon May 4 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Aviation updated. Increased Fire Danger statement issued for Tuesday afternoon. See fire weather section below. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Showers/storms to impact the area by Wednesday afternoon into Thursday. 2) A few showers/storms possible today in the mountains/foothills of VA/WV. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1...Showers/storms to impact the area by Wednesday afternoon into Thursday. A broad upper-level closed low over eastern Canada will continue to drive cyclonic flow and repeated trough reinforcement through the period. This pattern will bring a stretch of unsettled weather across the area Wed-Thu. The progressive cold front will continue to move across us by Thursday bringing showers and thunderstorms. Although the main front moves offshore by the weekend, the embedded shortwave troughs will continue isolated to scattered shower activity into the weekend. Below normal temperatures can be expected Thu-Sat. KEY MESSAGE 2... A few showers possible through this afternoon in the mountains/foothills of VA/WV. An embedded shortwave/vort max arrives this afternoon and with some low level convergence expect a few showers to form in the mountains. A few of the convective allowing models keep the "best" chance over southeast WV into the Alleghany Highlands but am allowing some potential for showers to survive the Blue Ridge crossing with better low level convergence here and keep pops overall in the 20-30% range. Temperatures will be closer to normal today and Tuesday. Tuesday looks to be the drier day of the next few. && .AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... VFR flight conditions will continue over the region through Tuesday evening. Passing showers this evening over parts of southeast WV and the Alleghany Highlands of VA have brought only light rainfall amounts, but have since exited the region and little to no rain is expected until Wednesday. Might see some patchy fog at KLWB for a few hours tomorrow morning, since they did receive some rain this afternoon, but winds may stay elevated enough to limit fog development. Still have included in the KLWB TAF for now. Winds will be light out of the south and southwest between 5-10 kts, with gusts picking up on Tuesday morning reaching up to 20kts by the afternoon. Clouds begin to increase ahead of a front approaching from the west late in the TAF period, but ceilings will remain VFR. EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK... Sub VFR conditions are possible Wednesday and Thursday will the arrival of a cold front, along with showers and possible thunderstorms. Most of the precipitation should be out of the area by the weekend, but chances for isolated showers/storms linger until the end of the week. && .FIRE WEATHER... Increased Fire Danger statement issued for portions of the southern Shenandoah Valley, VA Foothills and Piedmont for Tuesday afternoon. Widespread drought continues over the region and with a lack of any widespread rainfall the past several days. Strong southwest flow increases during the day tomorrow ahead of an approaching front from the west. Although flow from the south/southwest usually brings a more moist airmass, dry air aloft, along with an increasing low level jet may allow for enhanced mixing of lower dew points to the surface by the afternoon. Dew points falling into the 30s and daytime high temperatures into the 70s to low 80s could result in min RH in the 20 percent range. Sustained winds of 10 to 15mph, with some gusts up to 25mph, are expected. A combination of low RH and gusty southerly winds will increase fire danger across most of the region tomorrow. Ever increasing canopy from greenup may help limit the upper end potential, but dry underbrush is still susceptible to rapid fire spread. && .RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VA...None. NC...None. WV...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...BMG/WP AVIATION...AS/VFJ FIRE WEATHER...AS/BMG