FXUS61 KRNK 041717

AFDRNK



Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Blacksburg VA

117 PM EDT Mon May 4 2026



.WHAT HAS CHANGED...

Aviation updated.



Not much change in the forecast, with highest probability of

measurable rain in the late Wednesday through Thursday

timeframe.



Increasing fire weather concerns on Tuesday. Have added a fire

weather section below.



&&



.KEY MESSAGES...

1) Showers/storms to impact the area by Wednesday afternoon into

Thursday. 



2) A few showers/storms possible today in the

mountains/foothills of VA/WV.



&&



.DISCUSSION...

KEY MESSAGE 1...Showers/storms to impact the area by Wednesday 

afternoon into Thursday. 



A broad upper-level closed low over eastern Canada will continue 

to drive cyclonic flow and repeated trough reinforcement 

through the period. This pattern will bring a stretch of 

unsettled weather across the area Wed-Thu. The progressive cold

front will continue to move across us by Thursday bringing 

showers and thunderstorms. Although the main front moves 

offshore by the weekend, the embedded shortwave troughs will 

continue isolated to scattered shower activity into the 

weekend. Below normal temperatures can be expected Thu-Sat.





KEY MESSAGE 2... A few showers possible through this afternoon 

in the mountains/foothills of VA/WV.



An embedded shortwave/vort max arrives this afternoon and with

some low level convergence expect a few showers to form in the 

mountains. A few of the convective allowing models keep the 

"best" chance over southeast WV into the Alleghany Highlands but

am allowing some potential for showers to survive the Blue 

Ridge crossing with better low level convergence here and keep 

pops overall in the 20-30% range. 



Temperatures will be closer to normal today and Tuesday. Tuesday

looks to be the drier day of the next few.



&&



.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...

VFR ft through period unless noted below.



Mainly mid- and high level clouds this morning. Could see a few

showers around BLF 15-16z so have a tempo group for this, with 

MVFR cigs. Activity this afternoon to widely scattered overall 

to have confidence in putting shra/tsra in the tafs. Still main 

coverage looks north of a line from BLF-LYH.



Southwest winds will be light this morning then increase after 

14z with gusts to 20kts possible.



OUTLOOK MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...

Tuesday: VFR.



Wednesday-Thursday: Restrictions possible from SHRA/TSRA as a

storm system impacts the area.



Friday: CIGs/VSBYs improve after the passage of a cold front.



&&



.FIRE WEATHER...



Widespread drought continues over the region and with a lack of

any widespread rainfall the past several days...could see fire 

weather concerns on Tuesday.



Strong southwest flow increases during the day on Tuesday ahead

of an approaching front from the west. Although flow from the

south/southwest usually brings a more moist airmass, dry air

aloft, along with an increasing low level jet may allow for

enhanced mixing of lower dew points to the surface by Tuesday 

afternoon. Dew points falling into the 30s and daytime high

temperatures into the 70s to low 80s could result in min RH 

falling into the 20 percent range. Winds sustained 10 to 15mph, 

with some gusts up to 25mph. A combination of low RH and gusty 

southerly winds will increase fire danger across most of the 

region on Tuesday. Ever increasing canopy from greenup may help 

limit the upper end potential, but dry underbrush is still 

susceptible to rapid fire spread.



&&



.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

VA...None.

NC...None.

WV...None.



&&



$$



DISCUSSION...BMG/WP

AVIATION...VFJ

FIRE WEATHER...BMG