FXUS61 KRNK 041050

AFDRNK



Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Blacksburg VA

650 AM EDT Mon May 4 2026



.WHAT HAS CHANGED...

Aviation updated.



&&



.KEY MESSAGES...

1) Showers/storms to impact the area by Wednesday afternoon into

Thursday. Most areas



2) A few showers/storms possible today in the

mountains/foothills of VA/WV.



&&



.DISCUSSION...

KEY MESSAGE 1...Decent chance for measurable rainfall areawide

midweek.



A broad upper-level closed low over eastern Canada will continue 

to drive cyclonic flow and repeated trough reinforcement 

through the period. This pattern will bring a stretch of 

unsettled weather across the area Wed-Thu. The progressive cold

front will continue to move across us by Thursday bringing 

showers and thunderstorms. Although the main front moves 

offshore by the weekend, the embedded shortwave troughs will 

continue isolated to scattered shower activity into the 

weekend. Below normal temperatures can be expected Thu-Sat.





KEY MESSAGE 2... A few showers/storms possible today in the

mountains/foothills of VA/WV.



An embedded shortwave/vort max arrives this afternoon and with

some low level convergence expect a few showers/storms to form

in the mountains. A few of the convective allowing models keep

the "best" chance over southeast WV into the Alleghany Highlands

but am allowing some potential for showers to survive the Blue

Ridge crossing with better low level convergence here and keep

pops overall in the 20-30% range. 



Temperatures will be closer to normal today and Tuesday. Tuesday

looks the drier day of the next few.



&&



.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

VFR ft through period unless noted below.



Mainly mid- and high level clouds this morning. Could see a few

showers around BLF 15-16z so have a tempo group for this, with 

MVFR cigs. Activity this afternoon to widely scattered overall 

to have confidence in putting shra/tsra in the tafs. Still main 

coverage looks north of a line from BLF-LYH.



Southwest winds will be light this morning then increase after 

14z with gusts to 20kts possible.



OUTLOOK MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...

Tuesday: VFR.



Wednesday-Thursday: Restrictions possible from SHRA/TSRA as a

storm system impacts the area.



Friday: CIGs/VSBYs improve after the passage of a cold front.



&&



.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

VA...None.

NC...None.

WV...None.



&&



$$



DISCUSSION...VFJ/WP

AVIATION...DB/WP