FXUS61 KRNK 040624

AFDRNK



Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Blacksburg VA

224 AM EDT Mon May 4 2026



.WHAT HAS CHANGED...



Not much change in the forecast, with highest probability of

measurable rain in the late Wednesday through Thursday

timeframe.





&&



.KEY MESSAGES...

1) Showers/storms to impact the area by Wednesday afternoon into

Thursday. Most areas



2) A few showers/storms possible today in the

mountains/foothills of VA/WV.



&&



.DISCUSSION...

KEY MESSAGE 1...Decent chance for measurable rainfall areawide

midweek.



A broad upper-level closed low over eastern Canada will continue 

to drive cyclonic flow and repeated trough reinforcement 

through the period. This pattern will bring a stretch of 

unsettled weather across the area Wed-Thu. The progressive cold

front will continue to move across us by Thursday bringing 

showers and thunderstorms. Although the main front moves 

offshore by the weekend, the embedded shortwave troughs will 

continue isolated to scattered shower activity into the 

weekend. Below normal temperatures can be expected Thu-Sat.





KEY MESSAGE 2... A few showers/storms possible today in the

mountains/foothills of VA/WV.



An embedded shortwave/vort max arrives this afternoon and with

some low level convergence expect a few showers/storms to form

in the mountains. A few of the convective allowing models keep

the "best" chance over southeast WV into the Alleghany Highlands

but am allowing some potential for showers to survive the Blue

Ridge crossing with better low level convergence here and keep

pops overall in the 20-30% range. 



Temperatures will be closer to normal today and Tuesday. Tuesday

looks the drier day of the next few.





&&



.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

Mainly mid- and high level clouds this morning. A few sprinkles

possible at LWB but no flight restrictions anticipated. 



Expect VFR through the period. A few showers/storms will be

around this afternoon/early evening from LWB/ROA/LYH corridor 

but too isolated to have in the tafs with low confidence in 

coverage.



Southwest winds will be light this morning then increase after

14z with gusts to 20kts possible.



OUTLOOK MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...

Tuesday: VFR.



Wednesday-Thursday: Restrictions possible from SHRA/TSRA as a

storm system impacts the area.



Friday: CIGs/VSBYs improve after the passage of a cold front.



&&



.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

VA...None.

NC...None.

WV...None.



&&



$$



DISCUSSION...VFJ/WP

AVIATION...DB/WP