FXUS61 KRNK 040520 AFDRNK Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Blacksburg VA 120 AM EDT Mon May 4 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... The aviation forecast has been updated. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) High confidence in showers and storms occurring for almost the entire area Wednesday- Thursday. 2) A few showers will be possible across parts of Southeast West Virginia and adjacent areas of Southwest Virginia late through tomorrow morning. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1... High confidence in showers and storms occurring for almost the entire area Wednesday-Thursday. Broad troughing over most of the CONUS will be driven by a strong mid-level low over Canada this week. On Wednesday a front will be pulled through the area, bringing widespread PoPs to southwest VA. Timing-wise, it appears the period with highest chances will be the afternoon and evening, allowing diurnal heating to destabilize the surface layer, increasing chances for thunderstorms. Another surface low with its own trailing front will adhere closely to the southern portion of Wednesday's front, elongating itself zonally as it approaches us on Thursday. This will lead to an extended period of rain over Wednesday and Thursday, with the potential for embedded convection. Forecast rain totals for both days are between 0.75"-1.5", with the highest amounts in the mountains and lower amounts towards the Piedmont and central VA. How the rain falls will determine its impact on the drought. High rainfall rates in strong convection will mostly run off, as we are dry enough that water absorption rate in the ground is reduced. A steadier, even paced rainfall will allow more of the QPF to absorb. KEY MESSAGE 2... A few showers will be possible across parts of Southeast West Virginia and adjacent areas of Southwest Virginia late through tomorrow morning. Expect mostly mid- and high-level cloudiness to increase from west to east overnight as a weak shortwave trough traverses the region. The thickest cloud cover should remain along and north of the US-460 corridor, closer to the disturbance's center. A few showers could be seen with the passage of the disturbance west of the Blue Ridge, which could eek out a hundredth of an inch (or two), but most places will remain dry thanks to high pressure near the surface. && .AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Mainly mid- and high level clouds this morning. A few sprinkles possible at LWB but no flight restrictions anticipated. Expect VFR through the period. A few showers/storms will be around this afternoon/early evening from LWB/ROA/LYH corridor but too isolated to have in the tafs with low confidence in coverage. Southwest winds will be light this morning then increase after 14z with gusts to 20kts possible. OUTLOOK MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY... Tuesday: VFR. Wednesday-Thursday: Restrictions possible from SHRA/TSRA as a storm system impacts the area. Friday: CIGs/VSBYs improve after the passage of a cold front. && .RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VA...None. NC...None. WV...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...DB/VFJ AVIATION...DB/WP