FXUS61 KRNK 040020 AFDRNK Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Blacksburg VA 820 PM EDT Sun May 3 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... The aviation forecast has been updated. A few isolated showers could be seen around sunrise as a weak shortwave trough moves through the region. Confidence continues to grow in a widespread rain and storm event on Wednesday and Thursday. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) High confidence in showers and storms occurring for almost the entire area Wednesday- Thursday. 2) A few showers will be possible across parts of Southeast West Virginia and adjacent areas of Southwest Virginia late through tomorrow morning. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1... High confidence in showers and storms occurring for almost the entire area Wednesday-Thursday. Broad troughing over most of the CONUS will be driven by a strong mid-level low over Canada this week. On Wednesday a front will be pulled through the area, bringing widespread PoPs to southwest VA. Timing-wise, it appears the period with highest chances will be the afternoon and evening, allowing diurnal heating to destabilize the surface layer, increasing chances for thunderstorms. Another surface low with its own trailing front will adhere closely to the southern portion of Wednesday's front, elongating itself zonally as it approaches us on Thursday. This will lead to an extended period of rain over Wednesday and Thursday, with the potential for embedded convection. Forecast rain totals for both days are between 0.75"-1.5", with the highest amounts in the mountains and lower amounts towards the Piedmont and central VA. How the rain falls will determine its impact on the drought. High rainfall rates in strong convection will mostly run off, as we are dry enough that water absorption rate in the ground is reduced. A steadier, even paced rainfall will allow more of the QPF to absorb. KEY MESSAGE 2... A few showers will be possible across parts of Southeast West Virginia and adjacent areas of Southwest Virginia late through tomorrow morning. Expect mostly mid- and high-level cloudiness to increase from west to east overnight as a weak shortwave trough traverses the region. The thickest cloud cover should remain along and north of the US-460 corridor, closer to the disturbance's center. A few showers could be seen with the passage of the disturbance west of the Blue Ridge, which could eek out a hundredth of an inch (or two), but most places will remain dry thanks to high pressure near the surface. && .AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Mainly mid- and high level clouds should increase from W to E this evening, as a shortwave trough moves across the region. A few lower CIGs could be seen, especially IVOF KLWB, but even in this region, no flight restrictions are expected. As such, flight categories should remain VFR through 05/0000 UTC. Generally L/V winds overnight should become SW and increase to at least 10 kts after 04/1800 UTC at most terminals. There are indications that higher gusts (approaching 15-20 kts.) could be seen, but my confidence was not high enough to put these values in the 04/0000 UTC TAF package at this time. OUTLOOK MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY... Monday night-Tuesday: ISOLD -SHRA/TSRA could be seen, especially Monday afternoon/evening. Outside of convection, no restrictions expected. Wednesday-Thursday: Restrictions possible from SHRA/TSRA as a storm system impacts the area. Friday: CIGs/VSBYs improve after the passage of a cold front. && .RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VA...None. NC...None. WV...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...DB/VFJ AVIATION...DB