FXUS61 KRLX 250445 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Charleston WV 1245 AM EDT Sat Oct 25 2025 .SYNOPSIS... Dry with high pressure through Sunday. The location of an upper level low will determine the weather for the next work week, but models are not in disagreement. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 1225 AM Saturday... A surface high pressure system will provide dry weather for today and tonight. A system developing to the west however will push some clouds over the region. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... As of 1225 AM Saturday... Surface high pressure will continue to provide dry weather for Sunday, although a system developing to the west will push some clouds over the area. The system to the west could provide a chance of showers to southern West Virginia, Kentucky, and southwest Virginia Sunday night, but models are not in agreement so confidence is low. Some models keep the area mostly dry. The chance for showers gradually pushes northward through Tuesday in some models, while others keep it over the southern counties or even south of the area. This continues the low confidence in the forecast. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 1230 AM Saturday... By Wednesday, the models show an upper level low northeast of the area, with another to the southwest of the region. Models however do not agree on the strength of these lows and that affects the location of the low to the southwest, and hence how much moisture makes it into our region. Some models propagate the upper low into the deep south or even over the northern Gulf of America, while other models bring the upper low over our region. Therefore, will keep a chance of precipitation over the region through the period, but confidence in the forecast is low. && .AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 1240 AM Saturday... Some dense river valley fog can be expected this morning, otherwise expect VFR conditions through the TAF period. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: River valley fog may or may not affect TAF locations this morning. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. DATE SAT 10/25/25 UTC 1HRLY 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 EDT 1HRLY 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H M M M M H PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H M L M H CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H AFTER 06Z SUNDAY... Widespread IFR conditions are not expected. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...RPY NEAR TERM...RPY SHORT TERM...RPY LONG TERM...RPY AVIATION...RPY