FXUS61 KRLX 241809 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Charleston WV 209 PM EDT Fri Oct 24 2025 .SYNOPSIS... Quiet with high pressure over the weekend, followed by the return of active weather for the start of next week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 210 PM Friday... High pressure anchored overhead today will encourage dry weather and cooler temperatures. Afternoon highs will only stretch into the 40s and 50s, with a few spots in the Tri-State area that plateau around the 60 degree mark. Overnight lows will once again tumble down to sub-freezing levels tonight and result in frost/freeze conditions, but as of this morning the growing season has now concluded for the Charleston, WV forecast area. Saturday will feature another quiet day around the Central Appalachians as the surface high retains influence over the area. Upper level height rises will support a slight warm up in daytime temperatures, with more lowland spots rising into the low 60s for Saturday afternoon. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 210 PM Friday... Clouds will increase for the balance of the weekend as a disturbance ascending from the Central Plains slowly treks across the country for the end of the weekend. Still retain a mostly dry forecast to round out the weekend with near seasonable temperatures before shifting gears towards a more active pattern for the new work week. The southern stream system will first arrive into our coalfields late Sunday night and will permeate over the area on Monday. This will set forth the return of showers to the forecast area, but guidance suggests QPF values will be light on the order of a quarter of an inch or less. This looks to be a steady stream of light rain even beyond the forecast area, which could be beneficial by putting a small dent in the ongoing drought while also mitigating concerns for flooding within the forecast period. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 210 PM Friday... Active weather stretches into the extended forecast period amid a slew of passing disturbances. After a brief lull in precipitation possible on Tuesday, a new system dropping down from the Upper Midwest aims for the Ohio Valley for midweek, however consensus remains hazy on details this far out in the forecast. Central guidance broadbrushed the area with a 50/50 chance for the end of the period in regards to POPs, and see no reason to change that with this package. Temperatures will become much cooler in the midst of the on and off showers and overcast skies, with some areas along the mountains struggling to get above freezing Thursday afternoon. This may allow for a rain/snow transition to transpire at the conclusion of the valid forecast period. && .AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 210 PM Friday... High pressure over the area advertises dry weather through the period with patchy daytime fair weather cumulus. With the amount of dry air in place, there will be delayed fog production Saturday morning, only forming just before sunrise at PKB and EKN. Fog erosion will then lead into another quiet day on Saturday. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: River valley fog Saturday morning may or may not affect TAF locations. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 EDT 1HRLY 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H AFTER 18Z SATURDAY... IFR conditions are possible with showers along the mountains Monday morning. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...05 NEAR TERM...05/RPY SHORT TERM...05 LONG TERM...05 AVIATION...05