FXUS61 KRLX 210913 AFDRLX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston WV 513 AM EDT Sat Mar 21 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Aviation Discussion Update. Slightly higher confidence in potential for strong storms ahead of a front on Sunday. && .KEY MESSAGES... - 1) The next chance of rain and storms arrives with a front late Sunday into Monday morning. Scattered strong to severe storms will be possible ahead of and along the front. Much cooler with breezy conditions lingering behind the front during the day Monday. - 2) Very dry on Tuesday, though a lack of strong winds should keep fire weather concerns to a minimum. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1... The next opportunity for rain and thunderstorms develops in ahead of a cold front late Sunday and then continues as the front crosses the area overnight into Monday morning. Forecast soundings indicate potential for strong to severe storms amid a rather warm and unstable environment ahead of the front Sunday afternoon and evening. Instability should then gradually wane after sundown, though strong shear may accompany the front. Given the timing of the front, highest probability of severe weather will be in the northwest portion of the forecast area, with decreasing potential further south and east. Thus, the Severe Weather Outlook for Sunday shows a slight risk across southeast OH, part of northeast KY, and northwest WV. A marginal risk extends east of this to cover the rest of the forecast area - with the exception of far southeast WV and southwest VA which is only highlighted for general thunderstorms. Precipitation tapers off behind the front Monday morning, while breezy conditions are expected to persist through the majority of the day. Meanwhile, temperatures should return to normal for this time of year. KEY MESSAGE 2... Rather dry conditions are expected on Tuesday, with relative humidity values likely to dip down into the 20 to 30 percent range for the afternoon and evening. However, generally light winds should allow fire weather concerns to remain low during that time. && .AVIATION /09Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Some low clouds to the northeast may cause a short period of MVFR or worse ceilings at CKB/EKN early this morning. Once these clouds erode, area wide VFR is expected for the rest of the TAF period. Winds should generally be light and variable today into tonight, but may start to increase towards daybreak on Sunday. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Duration of sub-VFR restrictions early this morning may vary from the forecast. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. DATE SAT 03/21/26 UTC 1HRLY 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 EDT 1HRLY 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H EKN CONSISTENCY H H M M H H H H H H H H PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H M H M H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY H H H M M M M M H M H H AFTER 06Z SUNDAY... Brief IFR conditions are possible with showers and thunderstorms Sunday night into Monday. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...20 AVIATION...20