FXUS61 KRLX 210606

AFDRLX



Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Charleston WV

206 AM EDT Sat Mar 21 2026



.WHAT HAS CHANGED...

Slightly higher confidence in potential for strong storms ahead

of a front on Sunday.



&&



.KEY MESSAGES...

- 1) The next chance of rain and storms arrives with a front 

  late Sunday into Monday morning. Scattered strong to severe 

  storms will be possible ahead of and along the front. Much 

  cooler with breezy conditions lingering behind the front 

  during the day Monday.



- 2) Very dry on Tuesday, though a lack of strong winds should

  keep fire weather concerns to a minimum.



&&



.DISCUSSION...

KEY MESSAGE 1...



The next opportunity for rain and thunderstorms develops in ahead of 

a cold front late Sunday and then continues as the front crosses the 

area overnight into Monday morning.



Forecast soundings indicate potential for strong to severe storms 

amid a rather warm and unstable environment ahead of the front 

Sunday afternoon and evening. Instability should then gradually wane 

after sundown, though strong shear may accompany the front.



Given the timing of the front, highest probability of severe weather 

will be in the northwest portion of the forecast area, with 

decreasing potential further south and east. Thus, the Severe 

Weather Outlook for Sunday shows a slight risk across southeast OH, 

part of northeast KY, and northwest WV. A marginal risk extends east 

of this to cover the rest of the forecast area - with the exception 

of far southeast WV and southwest VA which is only highlighted for 

general thunderstorms.



Precipitation tapers off behind the front Monday morning, while 

breezy conditions are expected to persist through the majority of 

the day. Meanwhile, temperatures should return to normal for this 

time of year.





KEY MESSAGE 2...



Rather dry conditions are expected on Tuesday, with relative 

humidity values likely to dip down into the 20 to 30 percent range 

for the afternoon and evening. However, generally light winds should 

allow fire weather concerns to remain low during that time. 



&&



.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

VFR conditions are expected to persist through the majority of 

the TAF period, though a short period of MVFR or worse ceilings

could be possible at CKB/EKN early this morning. 



Winds will shift to the north as a front progresses across the 

area early this morning. After the front exits, winds become

light and variable for the remainder of the TAF period.





FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY...

     

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High. 

 

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Extent/intensity of sub-VFR restrictions 

early this morning may vary from the forecast.



EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY

OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:

H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.

L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.



DATE                              SAT 03/21/26

UTC 1HRLY       06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17

EDT 1HRLY       02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13

CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    M    H    M    H    H    H

CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M    M    H    M    H



AFTER 06Z SUNDAY...

Brief IFR conditions are possible with showers and thunderstorms 

Sunday night into Monday.



&&



.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

WV...None.

OH...None.

KY...None.

VA...None.



&&



$$



DISCUSSION...20

AVIATION...20