FXUS61 KRLX 210551 AFDRLX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston WV 151 AM EDT Sat Mar 21 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Aviation Discussion Update. Lowered TDs/RH a little this afternoon to reflect drier conditions until better return flow of moisture. Increased highs on Sunday as middle 80s more likely. Some guidance suggests upper 80s possible for some lowlands. && .KEY MESSAGES... - 1) Showers and storms increasing later this afternoon into tonight. A few strong storms possible. We remain in a Marginal Risk for severe weather. - 2) Another front brings a chance of rain and storms late Sunday into Monday. A few strong storms are possible with portions of NE KY, SE OH, WV in a marginal/slight risk for severe weather. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1... Showers and a couple thunderstorms are developing across the region this afternoon. Everything is sub severe, but later this afternoon into early evening there could be a couple strong to severe thunderstorms. All hazards are possible, but any threat is minimal. Coverage should remain isolated to perhaps scattered. Another round of storms are likely based on high res CAM solutions after midnight. Any threat for severe weather will be rather low as instability is largely absent. KEY MESSAGE 2... Another cold front passes through the region Sunday night into Monday. This front looks to be more robust, with another round of severe weather possible. There is a slight risk SE OH and a Marginal risk for portions of NE KY and western WV along the OH river. The main threats as of now appear to be marginal hail and strong damaging winds. Some early CAM solutions indicate storms could congeal into a line, thus increasing the wind threat. && .AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... VFR conditions are expected to persist through the majority of the TAF period, though a short period of MVFR or worse ceilings could be possible at CKB/EKN early this morning. Winds will shift to the north as a front progresses across the area early this morning. After the front exits, winds become light and variable for the remainder of the TAF period. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Extent/intensity of sub-VFR restrictions early this morning may vary from the forecast. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. DATE SAT 03/21/26 UTC 1HRLY 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 EDT 1HRLY 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H EKN CONSISTENCY H H H M M H H H H H H H PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H M H M H H H CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H M M M M M H M H AFTER 06Z SUNDAY... Brief IFR conditions are possible with showers and thunderstorms Sunday night into Monday. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...JRM AVIATION...20