FXUS61 KRLX 201858

AFDRLX



Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Charleston WV

258 PM EDT Fri Mar 20 2026



.WHAT HAS CHANGED...

Aviation Discussion Update.



Lowered TDs/RH a little this afternoon to reflect drier

conditions until better return flow of moisture. Increased

highs on Sunday as middle 80s more likely. Some guidance 

suggests upper 80s possible for some lowlands. 



&&



.KEY MESSAGES...

- 1) Showers and storms increasing later this afternoon into

  tonight. A few strong storms possible. We remain in a 

  Marginal Risk for severe weather. 



- 2) Another front brings a chance of rain and storms late

  Sunday into Monday. A few strong storms are possible with

  portions of NE KY, SE OH, WV in a marginal/slight risk for

  severe weather. 



&&



.DISCUSSION...

KEY MESSAGE 1...

Showers and a couple thunderstorms are developing across the 

region this afternoon. Everything is sub severe, but later this

afternoon into early evening there could be a couple strong to 

severe thunderstorms. All hazards are possible, but any threat 

is minimal. Coverage should remain isolated to perhaps 

scattered. 



Another round of storms are likely based on high res CAM

solutions after midnight. Any threat for severe weather will be

rather low as instability is largely absent. 





KEY MESSAGE 2...

Another cold front passes through the region Sunday night into

Monday. This front looks to be more robust, with another round

of severe weather possible. There is a slight risk SE OH and a

Marginal risk for portions of NE KY and western WV along the OH

river. The main threats as of now appear to be marginal hail

and strong damaging winds. Some early CAM solutions indicate 

storms could congeal into a line, thus increasing the wind 

threat.



&&



.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...Generally VFR this 

evening/early Saturday morning with the exception of brief

MVFR/IFR in any shower/storm. Cold front passes through early

Saturday morning with ending precip chances.  



Breezy SW winds of 10-15 kts and gusts around 25kts this 

afternoon into early evening. Diminishing late evening into the 

overnight.





FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY...

     

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium.

 

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: 



EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY

OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:

H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.

L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.



UTC 1HRLY       19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06

EDT 1HRLY       15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02

CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H



AFTER 18Z SATURDAY...

Brief IFR conditions are possible with showers and thunderstorms

tonight and again on Sunday night into Monday 



&&



.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

WV...None.

OH...None.

KY...None.

VA...None.



&&



$$



DISCUSSION...JRM

AVIATION...JRM