FXUS61 KRLX 200702 AFDRLX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston WV 302 AM EDT Fri Mar 20 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Although scattered showers and storms are expected to occur ahead of and along a front later today into tonight, the confidence in severe storm development is low. && .KEY MESSAGES... - 1) Breezy conditions develop ahead of a front today, with potential for showers and storms increasing later this afternoon into tonight. A few strong storms could be possible. - 2) Another front brings a chance of rain and storms late Sunday into Monday, then additional precipitation chances accompany a couple of mid to late week systems. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1... Strong winds aloft begin mixing down to the surface later this morning, with breezy conditions expected to persist through the majority of the day as a cold front approaches from the northwest. Scattered showers and thunderstorms begin to develop in advance of the front this afternoon. Although shear may be strong, forecast soundings suggest mediocre instability which slightly lessens confidence in severe storm development. That being said, SPC has maintained a marginal severe weather risk across the area as daytime heating could prompt a few stronger storms to develop and produce locally damaging wind, hail, or maybe even a tornado. The severe weather risk should gradually diminish after sundown, then precipitation comes to an end once the front crosses the area overnight. Drier conditions are then expected to take hold for the first half of the weekend. KEY MESSAGE 2... Another front brings potential for scattered rain showers and storms late Sunday into Monday, with breezy conditions likely developing prior to its arrival. Sunday's above normal temperatures are expected to give way to near to below normal temperatures in the wake of the front. A couple of passing systems could facilitate additional chances of precipitation mid to late next week; however, the timing and track of these systems is uncertain at this point. && .AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... VFR is generally expected to continue into the afternoon, then periodic MVFR/IFR restrictions may be possible within any showers and storms that form ahead of and along a front during the second half of the TAF period. A brief period of LLWS could be possible early this morning, then stronger winds are expected to mix down to the surface and promote 15 to 25 kt gusts through the majority of the day. Locally stronger gusts could also occur in heavier showers or storms. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Extent/duration of LLWS this morning may vary from the forecast. Onset time and extent of showers and storms may also vary from the forecast. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. DATE FRI 03/20/26 UTC 1HRLY 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 EDT 1HRLY 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H AFTER 06Z SATURDAY... Brief IFR conditions are possible with showers and thunderstorms tonight. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...20 AVIATION...20