FXUS61 KRLX 190401 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Charleston WV 1201 AM EDT Tue Aug 19 2025 .SYNOPSIS... Warm and humid today. A cold front pushes through Wednesday and Wednesday night. Much stronger cold front arrives for the weekend, dropping temperatures significantly. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... As of 935 PM Monday... Surface observations suggest the lower atmosphere decoupling this evening. Radiational cooling night, under mostly clear skies and calm flow, will allow for dense fog development along the most protected river valleys such as EKN, vicinity of CRW, and the WV southern coalfields overnight into early Tuesday morning. Rest of forecast remains on track. As of 145 PM Monday... Warm and mostly dry weather today will turn a bit hotter for Tuesday as high pressure shifts off to the east and southerly winds develop ahead of the next approaching front. Before that happens, however, we'll have a calm and mostly clear night once the diurnal cumulus field dissipates later this evening, with more valley fog tonight, likely spreading more into the lowlands compared to last night. Winds may stay up just enough in some spots to prevent fog formation, but anywhere that can decouple will be at risk of some valley fog. Forecast highs tomorrow are 70s to lower 80s in the mountains, and upper 80s to mid-90s in the lowlands. With lowland dew points expected to get into the upper 60s to perhaps lower 70s in the afternoon, heat index values will be well into the 90s for much of the area, but should generally fall shy of the 100F heat advisory threshold. && .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... As of 1155 PM Monday... A cold front will very slowly push southeastward through the region Wednesday and Wednesday night, providing for a chance of showers and thunderstorms. Models vary somewhat on the timing of the front and when it will push south of the area. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 1155 PM Monday... Questions remain as to how much moisture well be left behind the cold front and whether there is enough for showers and thunderstorms in the mountains for Thursday and Friday. A strong cold front will then push through Saturday night or Sunday, providing a significant change in temperatures for the end of the weekend and into the beginning of the next work week. There is some disagreement on the timing of the front between the models, but the models agree in the significantly cooler temperatures. && .AVIATION /04Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 730 PM Monday... High pressure at the surface and aloft will promote CAVU conditions for the most part of the area tonight. The exception will be IFR/LIFR conditions due to dense fog, developing along the most protected river valleys such as EKN. Coded IFR/LIFR conditions at EKN from 08Z through 13Z. Any fog that manages to develop will quickly dissipate by 13Z. Winds will remain light, and mainly from the north this evening, becoming calm after decoupling overnight. Winds tomorrow will shift SE-S'ly as high pressure moves off to the east and another front closes in from the northwest. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Extent and timing of valley fog tonight may vary from the forecast. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. DATE TUE 08/19/25 UTC 1HRLY 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 EDT 1HRLY 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H L L L L L M H HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H L L M H H BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H L L L H M H EKN CONSISTENCY H H L L L M M M M M M M PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H M L L L L M H CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H L L M M L M H AFTER 06Z WEDNESDAY... Brief IFR conditions possible in showers and thunderstorms Wednesday afternoon and Wednesday night. IFR possible in river valley fog most mornings the rest of the work week. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...FK/RPY NEAR TERM...FK/ARJ SHORT TERM...RPY LONG TERM...RPY AVIATION...FK/ARJ