FXUS61 KRLX 060937 AFDRLX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston WV 537 AM EDT Wed May 6 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... No significant changes from previous forecast thinking. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Cold front moves through the area today with showers and isolated thunderstorms. 2) Cooler and drier for Friday, with additional disturbances expected Friday night into Saturday, and another by Sunday. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1... Frontal boundary will move through the area today, generally progged to be just to the east of the CWA late this evening/early tonight. A surface low will move along the front through the area today, exiting to our northeast later this afternoon. Moderate to occasional heavy rain can be expected during this period, with most areas generally expected to get at least half an inch to three quarters of an inch through Wednesday night, with locally higher amounts of over an inch not completely out of the question, although qpf amounts have decreased in recent runs. A secondary wave of low pressure will move along the front late tonight. This will keep a mention of rain in the forecast for extreme southern/eastern zones. Drier, although potentially showery weather will continue into the day Thursday, with upper trough influence over the area, drying out Thursday night into Friday as surface high pressure builds in and flow aloft becomes more zonal. KEY MESSAGE 2... High pressure will briefly be in control across the area for Friday, with the potential for patchy frost early Friday morning, depending on slackening of winds. Additional disturbances are slated for the weekend, with additional rounds of showers and isolated storms Saturday, and a more potent system possible for Sunday. && .AVIATION /09Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Showers and isolated storms expected through 18Z-21Z, when a gradual decrease in coverage and intensity is expected. However, another wave of low pressure will provide additional rain later this evening and tonight, mainly across southern WV and the mountains, and SW Virginia. Expect widespread MVFR conditions to take hold across the area, from north to south, with a gradual deterioration to widespread IFR and local LIFR after 14Z. As precipitation moves out of northern zones this afternoon, some improvement to MVFR or low end VFR is expected, generally towards/after 00Z, and mainly north of the Ohio River, with much of the area south/east of the Ohio River remaining MVFR/IFR, particularly across the mountains where widespread IFR is expected to linger for the remainder of the TAF period and beyond. After 05Z, there remains the possibility for widespread LIFR or worse conditions in areas of fog and/or low stratus. Have added this possibility into several of the TAF's for the end of the period, with moderate confidence in occurrence. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing and intensity of showers/thunderstorms may vary from the forecast. Improvement on flight conditions Wednesday afternoon may vary. Development of LIFR or worse conditions in low fog and stratus late tonight may vary from forecast. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. DATE WED 05/06/26 UTC 1HRLY 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 EDT 1HRLY 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H HH H H H H H HTS CONSISTENCY H H L H H H H H H H M H BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H M H H H H EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H L H M H H H H H PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H M H H H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H AFTER 12Z THURSDAY... IFR conditions in low stratus/fog may linger into the first part of Thursday, particularly in and near the mountains. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...SL AVIATION...SL