FXUS61 KRLX 050927 AFDRLX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston WV 527 AM EDT Tue May 5 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... The marginal risk for excessive rainfall has been removed from the area. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Cold front approaches the area today, entering northern zones by early evening. Multiple waves moving along the front mid week will lead to periods of enhanced precipitation. 2) Cooler and drier for Friday, with an additional disturbance expected Friday night into Saturday. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1... Temperatures will warm a few more degrees on Tuesday, as southwesterly winds continue to strengthen across the area out ahead of an approaching cold front. A pop up shower or storm is possible this afternoon out ahead of the front, with weak instability expected, however, no severe is anticipated due to a lack of strong dynamics and warmer air aloft. Anomalously high moisture content air will surge into the region by Tuesday night into Wednesday, with PW values progged to top out at at least 1.3 inches. Frontal boundary will move into the area Tuesday night through Wednesday night, with a low moving along the front through the area during this period. Moderate to heavy rain can be expected during this period, with most areas generally expected to get at least half an inch to three quarters of an inch through Wednesday night, with locally higher amounts of over an inch. Frontal boundary should be just east of the higher terrain by Wednesday night, with a secondary wave moving along the front during this time period, before finally kicking off farther to the south and east of the area during the day Thursday. Drier, although potentially showery weather will continue into the day Thursday, with upper trough influence over the area, drying out Thursday night into Friday as surface high pressure builds in and flow aloft becomes more zonal. At this point WPC has removed the marginal risk of excessive rainfall from our area. Thinking if there any water issues, it will mainly be confined to poor drainage areas. KEY MESSAGE 2... The secondary low will gradually exit off to the east later in the day Thursday, with a brief period of drier conditions, and clearing taking hold for early Friday as high pressure nudges in from the west. Although it will be much cooler, a widespread frost/freeze is not anticipated at this time, but also can't be completely ruled out. Will depend on clearing and how quickly winds can slacken across the area. An additional disturbance will affect the area later Friday into Saturday, with cool and showery conditions. && .AVIATION /09Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... LLWS through 10-12Z at all TAF sites tonight. Isolated showers and storms possible through 21Z, with brief MVFR conditions possible. Otherwise, after 21Z, showers and storms will increase in coverage from the north, with a gradual deterioration to widespread MVFR, mainly north of the Ohio River, 00Z-06Z, with deterioration to widespread MVFR and areas of IFR after 06-12Z. Local LIFR or worse is possible at times after 06Z in rain, which will be moderate to heavy at times. Winds from the southwest, and gusty at times, with occasional gusts in the teens to lower 20 kt range. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing of convection/rain and associated restrictions may vary from forecast. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. DATE TUE 05/05/26 UTC 1HRLY 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 EDT 1HRLY 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H AFTER 12Z WEDNESDAY... IFR possible in moderate to heavy showers and thunderstorms Wednesday into Thursday. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...SL AVIATION...SL