FXUS61 KPHI 052333

AFDPHI



Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ

733 PM EDT Tue May 5 2026



.WHAT HAS CHANGED...

Updated Aviation Section for 00Z TAFs. Removed Key Message

regarding Fire Weather.







&&



.KEY MESSAGES...

1. A few systems bring showers to the area Wednesday into 

Thursday. Another weak system could bring some showers on 

Saturday.



&&



.DISCUSSION...

KEY MESSAGE 1...A few systems bring showers to the area 

Wednesday into Thursday. Another weak system could bring some 

showers on Saturday. 



An area of low pressure well to the north in Canada will drag a

cold front through the Great Lakes and move towards our region 

tonight. Showers begin to move in Wednesday morning but the 

bulk of the rain comes through later Wednesday which is a bit

slower then previous fcsts. The front tries to move through but

will eventually stall out near or just east of our area. Another

area of low pressure will develop over the southeast and lift 

towards the Mid-Atlantic coast along the stalled front. The pops

across Delmarva and southern NJ will tail off slower and remain

in the chance to low likely range Thursday before decreasing

Thursday night. There is a trend towards lower Pops for the N/W

areas from what was forecasted earlier. Overall, QPF is a 

little higher than previous fcsts with around 1/2 inch for the 

southern areas and 3/4 inch for the southern Poconos. 



While some guidance still attempted to bring some convective

elements to the region, the consensus is that we will see low 

instability and limited to zero severe/flooding threat. Overall,

this will be more beneficial rain for the area with an isolated

thunderstorm possible. 



For Saturday, a weak area of low pressure will move into the region, 

potentially producing some showers. This appears to be nothing more

than a potential weekend spoiler with no significant impacts expected

at this time. Pops range from the 50%-60% range for the Poconos

down to 35 to 40% for south Delaware and SE New Jersey.



&&



.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...

The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, 

KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas...



Tonight...VFR with SCT/BKN high clouds. Gusty S-SW winds

diminish in the evening, but will still remain around 10-15 kt

overnight. LLWS possible at all terminals, mainly between

02Z-11Z. Moderate-high confidence.



Wednesday...VFR in the morning, lowering to MVFR by midday as

showers arrive from west to east. A slight chance of IFR

conditions possible, but confidence is not great enough to

include in TAFs at this time. Included PROB30 groups for PHL and

ILG where a chance of thunderstorms are possible late in day.

S-SW winds around 10-15 kt with gusts up to 20-25 kt. Moderate

confidence overall.



Outlook...



Wednesday night through Thursday...MVFR/IFR conditions with 

showers, especially Wednesday midday into the afternoon and then

a second round on Thursday daytime S/E. KRDG/KABE may not see 

any showers on Thursday and things have continued the previous

trend for precip being further east away from the I-95 corridor

for Thursday. An isolated thunderstorm possible. South to 

Southwest winds becoming West overnight .



Thursday night through Friday Night...VFR. No significant 

weather.



Saturday...Sub-VFR conditions possible (30-50%) with some

showers and potential low clouds moving in.



Sunday...VFR expected.



&&



.MARINE...

For the ocean waters, a Small Craft Advisory went up earlier and

will remain in effect for tonight and into Wednesday night.

Winds will gust 25 to 30 kts and seas will continue to build

reaching 4 to 7 ft. Fair tonight and into Wednesday morning,

then showers for Wed afternoon into Thursday. 



Across Delaware Bay, winds continue a bit below SCA levels presently,

but should eventually reach 25 kts and a moderate chop by the evening.

The SCA flag will continue until 2AM. Fair tonight and into 

Wednesday morning, then showers for Wed afternoon into Thursday.



Outlook...



Thursday through Saturday...No marine headlines expected.



&&



.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

PA...None.

NJ...None.

DE...None.

MD...None.

MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM EDT Wednesday for ANZ430-431.

     Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT Thursday for ANZ450>455.



&&



$$



DISCUSSION...Fitzsimmons/Hoeflich/OHara

AVIATION...DeSilva/Fitzsimmons/Hoeflich/OHara

MARINE...Fitzsimmons/Hoeflich/OHara