FXUS61 KPBZ 211132 AFDPBZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 732 AM EDT Sat Mar 21 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... SPC has adjusted the the Slight Risk (level 2 of 5) and Marginal Risk (level 1 of 5) south. There still remains some uncertainty of the position/timing of the front which could impact when and where severe weather will impact. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Storm potential on Sunday with passing cold front, all severe threats in play. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1... After a quiet Saturday, a somewhat robust threat for severe weather is present for Sunday. Warm frontal passage Saturday night, attached to Great Lakes low pressure, allows for southwest flow promoting strong heating during the Sunday daylight hours. Well-above normal high temperatures are forecast, supported by 850mb temperatures approaching 15C. Highs will mainly be in the 70s, perhaps near 80 in the vicinity of the Mason-Dixon Line. One of the parameters we look at for severe weather is effective bulk wind difference (EBWD) which measures the vertical wind shear within a storm. During Sunday afternoon/evening, forecast soundings are indicating an EBWD of 45-60 kts which is favorable for supercell development. The ensembles MUCAPE (Most-Unstable CAPE), a severe weather parameter that can give us an indication of instability, is at least 500-1000 J/kg Sunday afternoon mainly for areas around Pittsburgh and south. As the cold front drops across the region during the afternoon/evening and interacts with this environment, some supercell structures may develop with all severe hazards on the table. At present, parameters appear best aligned in eastern Ohio, southwestern Pennsylvania, and northern half of West Virginia. There still remains some uncertainty of the position/timing of the front which could impact when and where severe weather will impact. Weakening convection would accompany the front through the night, with dry weather and cooler temperatures returning for Monday.Monday. && .AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Clouds will progressively scatter and lift to VFR through 16Z with high confidence. VFR will prevail for the TAF period with only high clouds and perhaps a brief scattered VFR deck late morning and early afternoon. Winds will transition south-southwest through the morning, remaining mostly light. There is low confidence in a restrictions making their way to FKL/DUJ before 12Z tomorrow as the next system encroaches, but opted to leave mentions out for now. Outlook... A new cold front could return strong to severe thunderstorms Sunday afternoon and evening. Restrictions will likely linger into Monday morning before VFR returns Monday afternoon. && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...None. OH...None. WV...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...CL/Lupo AVIATION...Milcarek