FXUS61 KPBZ 210535

AFDPBZ



Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA

135 AM EDT Sat Mar 21 2026



.WHAT HAS CHANGED...



Update to Aviation Discussion. 



&&



.KEY MESSAGES...



1) Storm potential on Sunday with passing cold front, all 

severe threats in play.



&&



.DISCUSSION...





KEY MESSAGE 1... 

After a quiet Saturday, a somewhat more robust threat for 

severe weather is present for Sunday. Warm frontal passage

Saturday night, attached to Great Lakes low pressure, allows for

southwest flow promoting strong heating during the Sunday 

daylight hours. Well-above normal high temperatures are 

forecast, supported by 850mb temperatures approaching 15C. Highs

will mainly be in the 70s, perhaps near 80 in the vicinity of 

the Mason-Dixon Line. MUCAPE levels of at least 500-1000 J/kg 

are suggested by ensembles Sunday afternoon, with a lot of that 

in the ideal hail growth zone. 0-6km shear may top out in the 

range of 50-60 knots. As another cold front drops across the 

region during the afternoon and evening, some supercell 

structures may be supported in this environment, with all severe

hazards on the table. At present, parameters appear best 

aligned in eastern Ohio and leaking over into southwestern

Pennsylvania. Accordingly, SPC has expanded the Slight Risk 

(level 2 of 5) into southwestern Pennsylvania, with a Marginal

Risk (level 1 of 5) encompassing the rest of our area. 

Weakening convection would accompany the front through the 

night, with dry weather and cooler temperatures returning for 

Monday.



&&



.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...



With a passing cold front, cigs will continue to decrease from 

north to south due to residual low-level moisture from precip 

over the last 24 hours. Cigs will likely range from MVFR to IFR 

from 06Z to 12Z early this morning. 



Hi-Res guidance suggest cigs to improve to VFR between 14Z to 

16Z today with sfc heating after day break. Winds will shift

from the south throughout the day. 



Outlook...

A new cold front could return strong to severe thunderstorms 

Sunday afternoon and evening. Restrictions will likely linger 

into Monday morning before VFR returns Monday afternoon.



&&



.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

PA...None.

OH...None.

WV...None.



&&



$$



DISCUSSION...MLB/CL

AVIATION...Hefferan