FXUS61 KPBZ 201135

AFDPBZ



Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA

735 AM EDT Fri Mar 20 2026



.WHAT HAS CHANGED...

QPF has trended up quickly for the Friday rainfall with a more 

convective element raising totals to between 0.25-0.75 inches 

for much of the region. High temperatures rose some on Sunday, 

given a later frontal passage and more pre-frontal heating 

throughout the daylight hours Sunday.



&&



.KEY MESSAGES...

1) Thunderstorm and severe weather potential Friday and Sunday.



2) Warming trend over the coming days before a Sunday night 

cold front.



&&



.DISCUSSION...

KEY MESSAGE 1... 



A trough in the largely west-northwesterly upper-level flow pushes

a surface low over the northwestern Great Lakes into the 

Northeast. Currently, ensembles are indicating a weaker round 

of showers/thunderstorms during the early afternoon, ahead of 

the front. There is an indication of daytime surface heating 

behind it supplying some moderately weak instability on the 

order of 200-300 J/kg which could limit thunderstorm development.

However, if the CAPE is combined with veering wind profiles and

ample deep layer shear, this could allow for some cellular 

structures to develop. Even though there is low-level hodograph

curvature, tornadoes remain a low probability due to uncertainty

with thunderstorm development in the evening. SPC has released 

a day 1 Marginal Risk (level 1 out of 5) for severe thunderstorms

today.



With a more convective look to the precipitation QPF 

expectations are between 0.10-0.50 inches. Ensembles are

indicating higher totals along the ridges and decreasing

westward. However, locally higher totals are possible in 

heavier showers and thunderstorms. Despite the uptick, little 

impact is expected from this QPF. 



A second trough and associated surface front return rain 

chances to the region Sunday-Sunday night. Ample heating in 

moist southerly flow ahead of the front sets the stage for 

storms once again and the machine learning models are projecting

some risk of severe weather. The overnight timing of the front 

and a notable high bias early this season in the machine 

learning models across our region bring some question as to how 

real a threat this will be. SPC now has a Marginal Risk out for 

most of western PA and northern WV with most of east/central 

Ohio in a Slight Risk (level 2 out of 5).





KEY MESSAGE 2... 



Subtle height rises across the region paired with over 3 days 

of general WAA at 850 mb and a largely southerly surface flow 

support high temperatures rising each day through the weekend.

Today and tomorrow, temperatures are expected to be around 5-10

degrees above normal.



By Sunday afternoon, 850 mb temperatures are set to climb as 

high as 15C. This combined with a breezy southwesterly flow 

ahead of the impending cold front will allow high temperatures 

across much of the area to punch into the 70s, with upper 60s 

north of I-80. Probabilities for high temperatures over 75 

degrees F is greater than 65% for Pittsburgh and areas to its 

southwest. High temperatures on Sunday could be as much as 

20-25 degrees above average. 



A cold front sweeps the region Sunday night, with cooler high 

pressure filtering in behind it. High temperatures return to 

near normal values but can fall on the order of 20-30 degrees 

from Sunday to Monday.



&&



.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...

Light and variable winds are expected through 14Z across all

terminals. Sfc mixing of stronger winds aloft that will lead to

gusty conditions late morning through early evening ahead of an

approaching cold front from the southwest/south. 



The probability of rain and thunderstorms increases between 18Z

and 20Z as the front tracks across Lake Erie and ventures south.

Any initial formation is more likely as a rain shower. Higher,

but conditional chances of severe fall mostly in the 20Z to 00Z

wind ow and south of BVI. Periods of low vis and MVFR cigs are 

expected with passing convection. 



In the wake of the cold front, expect cigs to decrease to MVFR

and potentially IFR with residual boundary layer moisture.

Probabilities of IFR are highest at FKL and DUJ.



Outlook...

VFR cigs return late morning Saturday. A frontal passage Sunday

could return strong thunderstorms to the region during the

afternoon.



&&



.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

PA...None.

OH...None.

WV...None.



&&



$$



DISCUSSION...Lupo/AK

AVIATION...Hefferan/Milcarek