FXUS61 KPBZ 191726 AFDPBZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 126 PM EDT Thu Mar 19 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... QPF has trended up quickly for the Friday rainfall with a more convective element raising totals to between 0.25-0.75 inches for much of the region. High temperatures rose some on Sunday, given a later frontal passage and more pre-frontal heating throughout the daylight hours Sunday. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Warming trend over the coming days before a Sunday night cold front. 2) Very light rain today with additional waves of rain and storms through the weekend. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1... Subtle height rises across the region paired with over 3 days of general WAA at 850 mb and a largely southerly surface flow support high temperatures rising each day through the weekend. High temperatures today will take a 10-15 degree leap over yesterday and return us to above normal. 850 mb temperatures are set to climb as high as 15C Sunday afternoon. This combined with a breezy southwesterly flow ahead of the impending cold front will allow high temperatures across much of the area to punch into the 70s, with upper 60s north of I-80. Probabilities for high temperatures over 75 degrees F are over 40% SW of US-422 and rise to 70-80% south of I- 70. High temperatures on Sunday could be as much as 20-25 degrees above average. A cold front sweeps the region Sunday night, with cooler high pressure filtering in behind it. High temperatures return to near normal values but can fall on the order of 20-30 degrees from Sunday to Monday. KEY MESSAGE 2... Mostly virga has been noted today with limited radar returns being spurred by the movement of a weak short-wave through the area. POPs begin to decline this afternoon and dry conditions are expected overnight. Another short-wave rounds through the largely west- northwesterly upper-level flow Friday and pushes a surface low across southern Ontario and into the Northeast. SFC heating ahead of the front will supply weak instability on the order of 100-200 J/Kg, which could allow for some weak updrafts to supply thunder chances but the likelihood of severe weather looks quite low. With a more convective look to the precipitation (and the availability of CAMs now) QPF expectations have risen to between 0.25-0.75 inches, with the highest totals in heavier showers and thunderstorms. Despite the uptick, little impact is expected from this QPF. An additional short-wave and associated surface front return rain chances to the region Sunday-Sunday night. Ample heating in moist southerly flow ahead of the front sets the stage for storms once again and the machine learning models are projecting some risk of severe weather. However, the overnight timing of the front and a notable high bias early this season in the machine learning models across our region bring some concern to how real a threat this will be. At this time, SPC has no outlooks for our region. && .AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... VFR ceilings remain in place at 18Z, with some virga and light rain showers crossing the region along with a weak shortwave. Have PROB30 mentions for these showers to the southwest of PIT. The shortwave departs by sunset, at which point southwest wind around 10 knots will diminish. A VFR overnight period is figured. The next shortwave will begin to approach Friday afternoon, with an increase in mid and upper clouds. Instability and moisture availability will be better with this disturbance, with shower potential introduced at FKL/DUJ (and at PIT after 20Z) by the end of the TAF period. Any potential of thunderstorms should hold off until after 18Z Friday. Better low-level mixing will provide southwest wind gusts of around 20 knots by midday. Outlook... Rain and thunderstorm potential, with attendant restrictions, becomes higher Friday afternoon. A VFR Saturday may then be followed by a frontal passage Sunday that could bring another round of restrictions and a few thunderstorms. && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...None. OH...None. WV...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...AK AVIATION...CL