FXUS61 KPBZ 191112 AFDPBZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 712 AM EDT Thu Mar 19 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Little accumulation with the light rain today. QPF for this event and the additional rounds Friday/Sunday look minimally impactful. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Warming trend over the coming days before a Sunday cold front. 2) Light rain today with additional waves of rain through the weekend. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1... Mid-level warm advection in the west-northwesterly flow and several days of surface level southerly flow will support high temperatures rising daily through the weekend. By Sunday, high temperatures region-wide will be near 20 degrees above average with low 70s south of the city and 60s north of the city. A cold front looks to sweep the region Sunday and cooler high pressure filters in behind it, returning temperatures to near normal values. KEY MESSAGE 2... Dry conditions to start off Thursday as a weak short-wave approaches the region. POPs remain low with probabilities for even a tenth an inch of rain from this event are largely less than 20% across the region. The disturbance exits the region Thursday night and dry weather returns. The general west-northwesterly flow continues into the weekend as shortwaves round through the flow and cross through the region. This returns rain chances Friday-Friday night and Sunday night. Rain amounts look rather low and non-impactful with probabilities from the NBM of greater than 0.10" peaking near 60%-70% for the Friday wave. The 25th-75th precipitation spread for both Friday and Sunday is around 0.30" with precipitation totals near 0" on the low end and near 0.30" on the upper end. This indicates that measurable rainfall isn't a guarantee, however, there is a reasonable chance to see accumulation closer to the higher outlier. && .AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Low VFR ceilings are in place at 12Z. However, expect MVFR ceilings to develop at most terminals starting at 15Z or 16Z and lasting through the afternoon as a minor trough passage brings the lower ceilings. Some patchy light rain is present upstream as well. Impacts from this are expected to be minor, and handled with PROB/TEMPO groups for now with little if any visibility restriction. Ceilings should improve back to VFR for most terminals after sunset as the trough departs, although DUJ may hang on to MVFR levels past 00Z. A light W/SW wind is forecast through the TAF period. Outlook... A better potential for rainfall and restrictions arrives with the next shortwave on Friday. A VFR Saturday may then be followed by a frontal passage Sunday that could bring another round of restrictions and a few thunderstorms. && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...None. OH...None. WV...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Lupo/AK AVIATION...CL