FXUS61 KPBZ 190519 AFDPBZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 119 AM EDT Thu Mar 19 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... POPs trended down with the Thursday light rain. QPF for this event and the additional rounds later this week look minimal. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Warming trend over the coming days before a Sunday cold front. 2) Next chance for light rain is on Thursday with additional waves of rain through the weekend. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1... Subtle height rises on the far eastern fringe of the Four Corners region upper high are expected through the weekend. This and several days of generally southerly flow will support high temperatures rising each day through Sunday. High temperatures largely in the upper 30s today will be around 10 degrees below average, but by Sunday, high temperatures region-wide will be near 20 degrees above average with low 70s south of the city and 60s north of the city. A cold front looks to sweep the region Sunday and cooler high pressure filters in behind it, returning temperatures to near normal values. KEY MESSAGE 2... Generally dry conditions today give way to only marginally increasing rain chances overnight tonight into Thursday as a weak short-wave approaches the region. POPs have been trending down recently and probabilities for even a tenth an inch of rain from this event are largely less than 20% across the region. The disturbance exits the region Thursday night and dry weather returns. Generally large scale NW flow continues through late week and into the weekend as shortwaves round through the flow and cross the region. This returns rain chances Friday-Friday night and Sunday- Sunday night. Rain amounts look rather low and non- impactful for these waves as well, with probabilities of at least a tenth of an inch peaking near 60% for the Friday wave. Interestingly, the 25th-75th spread increases for both Friday and Sunday to near 0.30 inches, with the reasonable low end being nothing and the reasonable upper end being near 0.30" across the heart of the region. Measurable rainfall isn't a guarantee but once again a wider view of the possibilities show higher outlier wetter (but still largely non-impactful) solutions. && .AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Expect most locations to remain VFR through the first 6 hours at least. Most locations will begin to see some MVFR cigs begin to develop by the 10Z to 16Z timeframe during the day as a passing trough will bring some minor restrictions. Precipitation might be confined to the northern locations and will be light anyway. Thus left out the mention of precip. Winds are expected to be light and variable through the majority of the period. Outlook... The next potential impactful weather period favors the early weekend amid shortwave movement in NW flow, though timing and degree of impacts varies widely. && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...None. OH...None. WV...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...AK AVIATION...Shallenberger