FXUS61 KPBZ 070753 AFDPBZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 353 AM EDT Mon Apr 7 2025 .SYNOPSIS... A light wintry mix will exit the region this morning. A brief break in the weather and some temperature moderating is expected today. Another strong cold front will bring rain and snow late today and tonight. Much colder with scattered snow showers on Tuesday. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... KEY MESSAGES: - Wintry mix this morning - Late day rain showers north - Temperature moderation but still below normal ------------------------------------------------------------------- A stretched shortwave, embedded within a trough axis, stretching south from a deep upper low over the northern Great Lakes, will slowly move through the region today. This wave will at first eject the lingering wintry mix south and east of Pittsburgh this morning, and will also drag a strong cold front through the region late this afternoon and evening. Would expect a brief period of dry weather today and also some temperatures moderation as the sun could make a return. Precipitation associated with the cold front will be behind it in the strong cold advection. Would expect a line of rain showers to begin to cross the north late today and then rapidly head southeastward during the evening hours. With such strong cold air advection behind the front, rain showers will quickly change over to snow showers. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... KEY MESSAGES: - Cold air mass peaks on Tuesday with snow showers - Dry Wednesday with below normal temperatures ------------------------------------------------------------------- Lake enhanced snow showers are expected to remain ongoing early Tuesday into Tuesday afternoon with cold advection and northwest flow behind the front. A trace to 1 inch of snow is expected with lake enhanced snow bands. Accumulation will likely be generally focused during the overnight hours due to the high sun angle promoting melting. Broad surface high should keep the area dry on Wednesday. Temperatures remain below normal. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... KEY MESSAGES: - Below-average temperatures are considered favorable through Saturday - Precipitation chances return Thurs into Fri ------------------------------------------------------------------- Long-range ensemble models remain consistent, predicting a cool pattern through Saturday. A large-scale trough over our region will likely keep afternoon highs below 60 degrees, with less than a 25% chance of exceeding that, during this time period. The highest chance of precipitation (60-70%) is Thursday afternoon into Thursday night as a low-pressure system moves through the Midwest and Ohio River Valley. While rainfall amount of over a half inch are currently unlikely (less than 20%) higher elevations could see closer to that amount due to upslope flow. There's a possibility of continued precipitation Friday into Saturday if this noted trough stalls as indicated by a few long-range ensemble models. && .AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Shortwave movement ahead of the trough axis has increased areal coverage precipitation through 09z. Top-down moistening will work to reduce cigs once again, with confidence in IFR conditions (possibly LIFR) highest at MGW/LBE/DUJ where daytime dry advection has been limited and low levels remain more saturated. Precipitation types remain tricky as it is taking a bit longer than expected to switch over to frozen precipitation in some locations. Rain is most likely to transition into snow, however, there is a chance for some sleet to mix in as well. FKL/DUJ are most likely to see snow accumulation, however, <1" is expected since there are lowSLRs and warm surface temperatures which will keep accumulation rates low. Widespread MVFR/IFR is expected early this morning followed by gradual improvement back to MVFR/VFR from northwest to southeast during this afternoon, albeit only briefly as a reinforcing cold front pushes through this evening and brings precip and restrictions back to the area after 22z. Late tonight, the narrow band of rain and/or snow showers will move out of the area leaving a mix of VFR and MVFR conditions across the region. Outlook... By Tuesday afternoon, expect restrictions to be lifted across the region as a ridge builds in. The next low pressure system will arrive late Wednesday into Thursday with widespread precipitation/restrictions. && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...None. OH...None. WV...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...22 NEAR TERM...22 SHORT TERM...Hefferan/22 LONG TERM...Hefferan AVIATION...Cermak/Lupo