FXUS61 KPBZ 032354 AFDPBZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 654 PM EST Tue Feb 3 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... - Snow totals have decreased overall with a southward shift with the sfc low passing to the south. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Winter Weather Advisory for northern West Virginia this afternoon and evening 2) Widespread snow returns Friday 3) Potential for cold weather headlines this weekend && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1... Latest guidance has shown an overall southward trend with the surface low progged pass to the south. Ensemble probabilities have trended downward as well. However, no change was made to the Winter Weather Advisory given the timing of any more intense snow (3-7pm) and the potential for a quick coating on roadways, as well as brief visibility reductions during the evening commute. The likelihood of actual advisory criteria (3") should be largely limited to the higher elevations. Snow will diminish from west to east during the evening. KEY MESSAGE 2... Confidence is high for widespread snow starting early Friday and lasting through Saturday morning as a system crosses the Great Lakes. The heaviest snowfall rates are expected late Friday morning. Total accumulations of 1 to 4 inches are likely across the region, which will possibly warrant winter weather headlines in the next 48 hours. Due to high snow- to- liquid ratios (climbing form 15:1 to 20:1 throughout the event), expect a very light and fluffy snow. While most areas will see moderate amounts, eastern Tucker has a 30% chances of seeing Winter Storm criteria (hitting the 6-inch mark). Expect snow to taper off early Saturday morning for most of the region. However, if you are traveling in the higher elevations, watch for continued light snow due to mountain "upslope" effects. A strong cold front will clear out the moisture elsewhere, leaving the region with drier, colder conditions. KEY MESSAGE 3.... In the wake of the cold front early Saturday morning, temperatures will likely fall into the single digits or below zero. The combination of the cold air plus gusty wind (most areas have a 60-80% of max wind gusts exceed 30 mph Friday afternoon into Saturday) results in low wind chill values that could necessitate future Cold Weather Advisory issuance. && .AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... KEY MESSAGES... 1) Borderline VFR/MVFR ceilings prevail through tonight 2) Possible brief scattering of low stratocu during pre-dawn and morning hours ------------------------------------------------------------ Ceilings hover at low-end VFR or MVFR to start the TAF period, with light snow and occasional MVFR visibilities also lingering north of I-80 and south of I-70. The snow will taper over the next couple hours, giving way to dry conditions overnight but a lingering stratocu deck with ceilings remaining unchanged or seeing slight deterioration to more widespread high-end MVFR. Ensemble guidance suggests potential for brief scattering of stratocu during the 10z to 15z timeframe, especially south of I-80 and north of I-70 where the latest NBM shows an 80% or better chance of SCT/FEW total cloud cover during that window. Scattering is less likely, but not impossible (~50% chance), outside of those bounds at FKL/DUJ/MGW. Cloud cover increases again areawide by Wednesday afternoon with the onset of boundary layer heating/mixing, though the NBM continues to suggest only a 40-50% chance for MVFR ceilings. Probabilities for IFR ceilings remain low (generally 20% or less) at all terminals through the 24-hour TAF period. Outlook... VFR is expected Thursday as high pressure builds in. Widespread IFR and snow return late Thursday night through Friday with a crossing cold front. Ensemble probabilities indicate a 60-90 percent probability of at least 1 inch of snow, with 2-3 inch probabilities from 30 to 70 percent (with the highest probabilities across wrn PA and the ridges.) MVFR cigs could continue into Saturday under cold NW flow. VFR should return Sunday under high pressure. && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...None. OH...None. WV...Winter Weather Advisory until 1 AM EST Wednesday for WVZ012- 021-509>514. && $$ DISCUSSION...Hefferan/88 AVIATION...Cermak