FXUS61 KOKX 241128

AFDOKX



Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service New York NY

728 AM EDT Fri Oct 24 2025



.SYNOPSIS...

High pressure builds from the west into the weekend, remaining in

control through Monday. Low pressure may develop and pass to our 

south Tuesday night into Wednesday. Low pressure to the east may

impact the area through the end of next week.



&&



.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...

Upper trough remains over the Northeast today, with the axis 

shifting east into tonight. Deep associated low pressure to the 

north continues to gradually lift north into eastern Canada.



At the surface, high pressure builds in from the Midwest. Winds 

less gusty relative to recent days with a weaker pressure 

gradient. Cyclonic flow still present, supporting some afternoon 

stratocu. High temperatures continue to run a few degrees below

normal, in the upper 50s to around 60.



Lighter winds and temperatures a couple of degree cooler tonight,

so frost development possible across the interior overnight into

Sat AM. Best chances across the colder locales of Orange Co, 

and a Frost Advisory was hoisted here. Overnight lows range from

the low to mid 30s in the interior, to the mid 40s around the

urban NYC metro.



&&



.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...

The trough flattens locally Saturday, before being reinforced by

the next shortwave on Sunday. Limited impact to the sensible 

weather though as surface high pressure settles over the region 

through the weekend.



Skies likely a mix of sun and clouds both afternoons, with some

moisture trapped under the subsidence inversion. At least some 

patchy frost development seems likely each morning across the 

interior, perhaps more widespread inland Sunday night with 

temperatures a few degrees lower, and could fall below freezing 

in the coldest areas.



Otherwise, temperatures during the day run a good 5 degrees

below normal for late October, with light N/NW flow. Highs top

out in the mid to upper 50s on Saturday, and low to mid 50s on

Sunday. Blended in NBM25 to better align with recent trends in 

temperatures.



&&



.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...

High pressure remains in control at the surface Monday through much 

of Tuesday. An upper-level trough pivots through from the north and 

east during this timeframe, but has minimal impact as an anomalously 

strong ridge originating near the Hudson Bay keeps high pressure at 

the surface the dominate force. Therefore, expecting mainly dry 

weather Monday and Tuesday, but may see some more clouds around as a 

result of the passing upper trough. 



Late Tuesday into Wednesday, the upper-level ridge is expected to 

retreat poleward as a trough develops far in the interior to the 

west and may set up to our south with a developing low pressure 

system over the mid-Atlantic states. This sets up a bit of a rex 

blocking pattern. Have carried chance POPs through this period. This 

may change depending on where the low tracks and its strength. The 

models in this extended period haven't settled on a consistent 

solution yet.



Temperatures through this period are expected to sit below 

climatological norms. Highs mainly in the mid-50s each day with lows 

in 40s at the coast and 30s in the interior. Slightly cooler nights 

Sunday and Monday may lead to some frost development in the interior 

by daybreak Monday and Tuesday.



&&



.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...

Low pressure continues to lift northward across eastern Canada, 

while high pressure builds in from the SW.



VFR through the TAF period.



W to WNW winds today at around 10 kt become more NW tonight and

into Saturday.



     NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...



No unscheduled amendments expected.



.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...



Saturday-Tuesday: Generally VFR. Chance MVFR or lower in showers 

Monday and Tuesday, mainly at the coast. 



Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, 

can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90



&&



.MARINE...

Winds and seas remain below Small Craft Advisory (SCA) criteria

through the weekend on all local waters with nearby high pressure.

Increasing NE flow Monday as low pressure develops offshore 

could bring a return to SCA conditions on at least the ocean by 

early Tuesday, then likely persisting through at least midweek.



&&



.HYDROLOGY...

There are currently no hydrological concerns through the middle

of next week.



&&



.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

CT...None.

NY...Frost Advisory from 11 PM this evening to 9 AM EDT Saturday 

     for NYZ067.

NJ...None.

MARINE...None.



&&



$$



SYNOPSIS...DR/MW

NEAR TERM...DR

SHORT TERM...DR

LONG TERM...BR/MW

AVIATION...MW

MARINE...DR

HYDROLOGY...DR