FXUS61 KOKX 200303 AFDOKX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 1103 PM EDT Thu Mar 19 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Issued Small Craft Advisories for all waters Friday afternoon into Friday night, except through early afternoon Saturday on the ocean waters. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Temperatures warm into the weekend. 2) No major storm systems expected in the long term, with just a couple of disturbances Friday night into Saturday morning, and from Sunday afternoon into Monday. && .DISCUSSION... .KEY MESSAGE 1... High pressure continues to shift northeast into tonight. Lows tonight remain above freezing at the coast except in the LI Pine Barrens with some interior spots dipping below freezing. Temperatures will trend warmer beginning tomorrow with highs closer to average. By Saturday and Sunday, highs will be above average with highs in the middle 50s to middle 60s for western areas. Temperatures drop once again toward the beginning of next week. .KEY MESSAGE 2... A couple of weak disturbances embedded in the overall WNW flow regime aloft will progress through Friday night/Sat morning, and Sunday night/Monday morning. With the first system, rainfall amounts will average from 1/4 to 1/2 inch, highest across eastern LI, SE CT, and the Lower Hudson Valley. Closer to the NYC metro amounts look to be a bit lower at this time. Much of the forcing with the second system will be north of the area with the better dynamics and warm advection. In between the two systems, high pressure will be largely in control for the weekend with temperatures averaging 5 to 10 degrees above normal. However, following a cold frontal passage late Sunday night into Monday morning, temperatures will cool down to more seasonal levels. Another more robust system may impact the area late next week. && .AVIATION /03Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... High pressure will remain over the region through much of the day Friday. A cold front will approach from the northwest late Friday afternoon and will cross the region early Saturday morning. Mainly VFR through Friday afternoon. Cigs start to lower with rain chances increasing after 20z Friday. Expect MVFR or lower after 00z Saturday in rain. Winds will become light and variable tonight. Friday morning, winds increase to around 10kt out of the south, then increase into the afternoon with speeds 10-20kt with gusts to 25-30 kt. NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty... Occasional winds speeds/gusts may be higher than forecast late Friday afternoon. Timing of rain and lower flight categories may be off by an hour or two. .OUTLOOK FOR 03Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY... Saturday: Becoming VFR in the morning. NW winds 10 kt or less. Sunday: Chance of MVFR or lower with rain in the late afternoon/evening, possibly mixing with snow at night for the Lower Hudson Valley and CT. SW winds 10 kt or less. Monday: VFR. N winds G20 kt. Tuesday: VFR. N winds 10 kt or less. Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90 && .MARINE... High pressure will maintain light S/SW winds through Friday morning. Issued Small Craft Advisories for all waters Friday afternoon and evening as S winds increase ahead of an approaching cold front with gusts 25-30kt, before winds become SW and diminish Friday night. Seas on ocean will take longer to subside, probably not falling below 5 ft until early Saturday afternoon. Another round of Small Craft Advisory winds and seas appears likely late Sunday night through Monday night. Much of this will be in the NW flow following a cold frontal passage Monday morning. && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. NY...None. NJ...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 5 PM Friday to midnight EDT Friday night for ANZ331-332-335. Small Craft Advisory from 4 PM to 11 PM EDT Friday for ANZ338. Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM Friday to midnight EDT Friday night for ANZ340-345. Small Craft Advisory from 2 PM Friday to 2 PM EDT Saturday for ANZ350-353-355. && $$ DISCUSSION...BR/DW AVIATION...BC MARINE...