FXUS61 KOKX 191409 AFDOKX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 1009 AM EDT Thu Mar 19 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... No significant changes. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Below average temperatures today warm into the weekend. 2) No major storm systems expected in the long term, with just a couple of minor disturbance Friday night into Saturday morning, and from Sunday afternoon into Monday. && .DISCUSSION... .KEY MESSAGE 1... High pressure shifting northeast today will continue to allow for temperatures remaining below average with highs in the low to middle 40s. Temperatures will trend warmer beginning Friday with highs closer to average. By Saturday and Sunday, highs will be above average with highs in the middle 50s to middle 60s for western areas. Temperatures drop once again toward the beginning of next week. .KEY MESSAGE 2... A couple of weak disturbances embedded in the overall WNW flow regime aloft will progress through Friday night/Sat morning, and Sunday afternoon/night. A cold front passing through Sunday night will return the above normal temperatures of Friday through Sunday to more seasonal levels. No hazardous weather is expected with these disturbances, though the GFS does show a later timing of Sunday night/Monday for the second system. Another more robust system may impact the area late next week. && .AVIATION /14Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... High pressure will remain nearby and in control through the TAF period. VFR. SE-S winds gradually increase, becoming up to 10 kt for the metro terminals, and mainly 5 to 10 kt elsewhere. Winds diminish and shift to the SW this evening, then W later in the overnight. Winds speeds tonight will be 5 kt or less at the metro terminals and light and variable for outlying terminals. NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty... No unscheduled amendments expected. .OUTLOOK FOR 12Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY... Friday: VFR. S winds around 10 kt G15-25 kt, highest across Long Island. Friday Night: Rain likely with MVFR or lower conditions. S winds shifting to the SW around 10 kt G15-25 kt, highest across Long Island, diminishing late. Saturday: Becoming VFR in the morning. NW winds 10 kt or less. Sunday: Chance of MVFR or lower with rain in the late afternoon/evening, possibly mixing with snow at night for the Lower Hudson Valley and CT. SW winds 10 kt or less. Monday: VFR. N winds G20 kt. Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90 && .MARINE... Quiet conditions should last until Friday night, when some 5-ft waves could develop on the ocean with 25-30 kt gusts. Hazardous ocean seas should continue into daytime Sat, then gradually but briefly subside Sat night. Hazardous ocean seas could return to the ocean waters on Sunday as SW winds increase to over 15 kt, but are more likely on all waters Sunday night into Mon morning as winds shift NW after a cold frontal passage, with gusts to 25 kt and ocean seas above 5 ft. These conditions should linger on the ocean into Mon afternoon/night. There is a chance that any SCA conditions Sunday/Monday could be delayed by 6-12 hours from the current forecast. && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. NY...None. NJ...None. MARINE...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...MW AVIATION...JE MARINE...MW