FXUS61 KOKX 190232 AFDOKX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 1032 PM EDT Wed Mar 18 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... No significant changes. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Cold with below average temperatures through Thursday. 2) No major storm systems expected in the long term, with just a couple of minor disturbance Friday night into Saturday morning, and from Sunday afternoon into Monday. && .DISCUSSION... .KEY MESSAGE 1... High pressure over the area will moves to our northeast through Thursday. should remain dry through this period, with below average temperatures continuing. With nearly clear skies and light winds, radiational cooling tonight will allow for temperatures to drop back into the mid and upper 20s, near 30 in New York City. Temperatures slowly recover Thursday as the high moves off the coast, with temperatures still around 5 degrees below normal. .KEY MESSAGE 2... A couple of weak disturbances embedded in the overall WNW flow regime aloft will progress through Friday night/Sat morning, and Sunday afternoon/night. A cold front passing through Sunday night will return the above normal temperatures of Friday through Sunday to more seasonal levels. No hazardous weather is expected with these disturbances, though the GFS does show a later timing of Sunday night/Monday for the second system. && .AVIATION /03Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... VFR through the TAF period with high pressure in control. S-SSE winds will continue diminishing this evening with light to variable winds expected overnight. SE-S winds gradually increase Thursday morning after 12z, becoming 10 kt or less in the afternoon. Winds diminish and veer to the SW Thursday evening. ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty... Winds could be a few kt higher at times Thursday noon at KJFK, KLGA, and KEWR. .OUTLOOK FOR 00Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY... Thursday Night-Friday: Mainly VFR. Low chance for MVFR NW of the NYC metro Thursday night. Friday Night: Rain likely with MVFR or lower conditions. Saturday: Rain ends early, becoming VFR. W winds G15-20 kt in the afternoon. Sunday: Chance of MVFR or lower with rain in the late afternoon/evening, possibly mixing with snow at night. W winds G20 kt in the afternoon, becoming NW at night. Monday: VFR. N winds G20 kt. Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90 && .MARINE... Quiet conditions should last until Friday night/Sat, when some 5-ft seas could creep in and some wind gusts could near 25 kt on the ocean. Hazardous ocean seas should continue into daytime Sat, then gradually but briefly subside Sat night. Hazardous ocean seas could return to the ocean waters daytime Sunday as SW winds increase to over 15 kt, but are more likely on all waters Sunday night into Mon morning as winds shift NW after a cold frontal passage, with gusts to 25 kt and ocean seas above 5 ft. These conditions should linger on the ocean into Mon afternoon/night. There is a chance that any SCA conditions Sunday/Monday could be delayed by 6-12 hours from the current forecast. && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. NY...None. NJ...None. MARINE...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Goodman/BR AVIATION...DS MARINE...Goodman/BR