FXUS61 KLWX 211409 AFDLWX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 1009 AM EDT Sat Mar 21 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... No major changes were made to the previous forecast. && .KEY MESSAGES... -1) Temperatures warm through the weekend with a cold front bringing showers and thunderstorms late Sunday. -2) Quiet weather and cool temperatures through Wednesday before a cold front brings renewed rain chances late week. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1...Temperatures warm through the weekend with a cold front bringing showers and thunderstorms late Sunday. North to northwest winds will develop today behind a cold front. This wind will usher in cooler and drier air into the area. Temps will be noticeably cooler but still above average, with highs reaching into the 60s and lower 70s. Plenty of sunshine is forecast for Sunday. A south to southwest wind will redevelop through the day ahead of the next cold front. High temps will push into the lower 80s widespread, with some lower to middle 70s in the mountains and in Northeast MD. Dry conditions are expected until Sunday night when showers and a couple of thunderstorms develop along and ahead of the front. The front has continued to trend slightly slower. SPC does have western MD, much of the eastern WV panhandle, and portions of north- central MD in a Slight Risk for severe thunderstorms, with a Marginal Risk extending further south and east across much of the remainder of the forecast area. Gusty northwest winds will develop behind the passing cold front Sun night into the early part of next week. KEY MESSAGE 2...Quiet weather and cool temperatures through Wednesday before a cold front brings renewed rain chances late week. 1030-1032 mb Canadian high pressure will build over the area Tuesday into Wednesday with below normal temperatures expected. The surface high slowly drifts offshore Wednesday into Thursday with a weak shortwave trough passing through. This trough could touch off a few rain showers across the mountains and in northern parts of the forecast area Wednesday afternoon and evening, but overall consensus amongst the 00z guidance remains dry. Temperature moderate Thursday into Friday as high pressure pushes further offshore and another frontal boundary slides into the region. Model spread, mainly in the timing of troughs/fronts, starts to increase during this time. There will be a low pressure system passing well to the north, and it may send a backdoor front into the area Thursday. Whether or not this solution pans out will have a large effect on temperatures, with the range of possibilities from the upper 40s to upper 60s. Another low will quickly follow across the Great Lakes, with a stronger cold front projected to reach the area sometime Friday. The timing of these fronts could also impact temperatures Friday into the weekend, although the more important highlight is that this front will bring the next chance of widespread rainfall. && .AVIATION /13Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Prevailing VFR conditions are expected through the day today, although there could be a couple MVFR clouds scattered about late this morning. Winds will generally be out of the north to northwest, before becoming light out of the east and then southeast later this evening into the overnight. Winds become southerly again, then southwest ahead of the Sunday night cold front. MVFR or IFR conditions could redevelop with shower and thunderstorm activity Sun night with a stronger cold front. Northwest winds may gust up to 30 kt on Monday. Significant weather is unlikely Tuesday and Wednesday as high pressure builds across the area. && .MARINE... Post-frontal northwesterly winds are expected over the waters through the day today. These winds are largely expected to remain sub-SCA in nature, but could get close to low-end SCA levels for an hour or two. SCAs likely Sunday afternoon through Sunday night. Winds south to southwest 5 to 15 knots Sunday, increasing out of the NW with gusts of 20 knots Sun night. Small Craft Advisories are likely Monday into Monday night in strong post-frontal northwesterly flow. Some gusts of 30 kt are possible. High pressure will provide light winds Tuesday. Southwest winds may begin to increase Tuesday night into Wednesday and may approach advisory criteria. SCA level winds likely Thursday and again Friday as the next front pushes in. && .LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... DC...None. MD...None. VA...None. WV...None. MARINE...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...CPB/EST/KJP AVIATION...CPB/EST/KJP MARINE...CPB/EST/KJP