FXUS61 KLWX 210046 AFDLWX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 846 PM EDT Fri Mar 20 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Brief gusty winds and downpours have since weakened and pressed east. A few more downpours and isolated lightning strikes are possible late this evening into the overnight as a cold front crosses the region. && .KEY MESSAGES... -1) Temperatures warm through the weekend with a couple opportunities for rain showers and perhaps some thunderstorms. -2) Benign weather is likely mid week before a cold front brings the next chance of rain Friday. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1...Temperatures warm through the weekend with a couple opportunities for rain showers and perhaps some thunderstorms. The front will pass through overnight accompanied by scattered showers and a thunderstorm or two. West to northwest winds will develop behind the front. This wind will usher in cooler and drier air for Saturday into Saturday night. Temperatures will be noticeably cooler but still be above average. Highs should reach the 60s to lower 70s in the southern areas. Plenty of sunshine on Sunday. A south to southwest wind will redevelop through the day ahead of the next cold front. High temperatures will push into the lower 80s widespread with some lower to middle 70s in the mountains and in Northeast MD. Dry conditions expected until Sunday night when showers and a couple of thunderstorms develop along and ahead of the front. Gusty northwest winds will develop behind the passing cold front Sunday night into the early part of next week. KEY MESSAGE 2...Benign weather is likely mid week before a cold front brings the next chance of rain Friday. High pressure will build across the area Tuesday with below normal temperatures. As the high departs Wednesday, a shortwave trough could provide a few showers, though the consensus forecast remains dry for now. Temperatures do moderate a little but remain near normal. Model spread, mainly in the timing of troughs, starts to increase during this time. There will be a low pressure system passing well to the north, and it may send a backdoor front into the area Thursday. Whether or not this solution pans out will have a large effect on temperatures, with the range of possibilities from the upper 40s to upper 60s. Another low will quickly follow across the Great Lakes, with a stronger cold front projected to reach the area sometime between Thursday night and Friday night. The timing of these fronts could also impact temperatures Friday, although the more important highlight is that this front will bring the next chance of rain. && .AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... VFR conditions are expected through tonight. A cold front will initiate shower activity and perhaps a thunderstorm or two around mid-evening into the middle part of the overnight. This shower and storm activity could briefly drop cigs and/or vsbys to MVFR before rebounding to VFR at MRB and maybe IAD, DCA, and BWI. Winds south-southwest AOB 10 kts. Otherwise, VFR conditions later overnight. Winds shifting northwest becoming light and variable overnight through Saturday night. Winds becoming southerly again then southwest ahead of the Sunday night cold front. MVFR or IFR conditions could redevelop with shower and thunderstorm activity Sunday night with a stronger cold front. Northwest winds may gust up to 30 kt on Monday. Significant weather is unlikely Tuesday and Wednesday as high pressure builds across the area. && .MARINE... SCAs remain in effect through tonight as gusts push to around 20-25 knots out of the SW. Post-frontal northwesterlies actually decrease a bit on Sat before light southerlies return by late Sat, though SCAs may need to be extended into Sat for portions of the waters. SCAs likely Sun afternoon through Sun night. Winds south to southwest 5 to 15 knots Sun, increasing out of the NW with gusts of 20 knots Sun night. Small Craft Advisories are likely Monday into Monday night in strong post-frontal northwesterly flow. Some gusts of 30 kt are possible. High pressure will provide light winds Tuesday. Southwest winds may begin to increase Tuesday night into Wednesday and may approach advisory criteria. && .LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... DC...None. MD...None. VA...None. WV...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM EDT Saturday for ANZ530>543. && $$ DISCUSSION...ADS/AVS/KLW/DHOF/CPB AVIATION...ADS/AVS/KLW/DHOF/CPB MARINE...ADS/AVS/KLW/DHOF/CPB