FXUS61 KLWX 051352 AFDLWX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 952 AM EDT Tue May 5 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... No major changes were made to the forecast this morning. && .KEY MESSAGES... - 1) Warm and dry conditions expected today, followed by beneficial rainfall tomorrow. - 2) High pressure moves in at the end of the week, followed by weekend showers and fluctuating temperatures. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1...Warm and dry conditions expected today, followed by beneficial rainfall tomorrow. High pressure shifts offshore today with warm, dry, and windy conditions expected. High temperatures rise into the 80s for most with higher elevations staying in 70s. Cloud cover increases from northwest to southeast this afternoon as a cold front approaches from the Ohio River Valley. Rainfall associated with the frontal passage is expected to be widespread and beneficial. A few thunderstorm are possible, although rainfall will primarily be stratiform. Rain moves out of the area Wednesday night and into Thursday morning with cooler temperatures expected for the end of the week. KEY MESSAGE 2...High pressure moves in at the end of the week, followed by weekend showers and fluctuating temperatures. Surface high pressure moves into the region by Thursday night after Wednesday's frontal boundary transitions offshore, maintaining temperatures in the 50s and 60s until the end of the week. Temperatures start to increase again going into the weekend, with highs in the 70s on Saturday and Sunday. A few rain showers associated with a shortwave upper level trough are possible on Saturday. Looking ahead, another Great Lakes frontal boundary looks to be making its way towards the East Coast by early next week, bringing additional chances for rainfall. && .AVIATION /13Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Southwest winds gust 20 to 30 knots beginning this morning through Wednesday morning. As a cold front pushes across the terminals on Wednesday afternoon into Wednesday evening, winds shift to northwesterly and diminish. Additionally, widespread rain showers and thunderstorms bring reduced ceilings and visibilities to all terminals. Northerly winds on Thursday shift southwest by Friday evening, with gusts up to 10-15 knots. Periodic sub-VFR conditions are still possible on Thursday as a strong cold front transitions offshore. VFR conditions on Friday. Showers and thunderstorms are possible on Saturday with sub-VFR conditions expected during heaviest rain showers in the afternoon. && .MARINE... Small Craft Advisories remains in effect for all waters through Wednesday afternoon as southerly winds gusts up to 30 knots. A cold front crosses the waters later Wednesday afternoon into Wednesday evening, with winds shifting to northwesterly and diminishing behind the frontal passage. Winds remain below SCA criteria on Thursday, although winds in the southern portions of the waters near criteria. Light and variable winds are expected beginning Friday morning. South winds Saturday morning gust near SCA criteria. Winds diminish to below SCA criteria Saturday evening. && .FIRE WEATHER... Warm, dry, and windy conditions today lead to elevated to near critical fire weather conditions this afternoon. Gusty winds 30 to 35 mph, low humidities in the mid 20s, and fuel moisture between 8-10% are expected today, with the greatest risk for dangerous fire wx behavior west of the Blue Ridge where recent cool temperatures and freezes have slowed down green-up. Greener vegetation east of the Blue Ridge Mountains should preclude any fires from exhibiting extreme fire behavior, but gusty winds of 30-35 mph may still cause fire containment difficulty even though fuels are not as dry as they were two weeks ago. Special Weather Statements for Elevated Fire Danger have been issued across Virginia, the Eastern Panhandle of West Virginia, and Western Maryland through 7 PM this evening. && .LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... DC...None. MD...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT Wednesday for MDZ008. VA...None. WV...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT Wednesday for ANZ530>534- 537-539>541-543. Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT Wednesday for ANZ535-536- 538-542. && $$ DISCUSSION...AVS/KJP/SRT AVIATION...AVS/SRT MARINE...SRT