FXUS61 KLWX 040134 AFDLWX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 934 PM EDT Sun May 3 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Small Craft Advisory issued for late tonight/Monday morning along the bay and Monday afternoon for the middle/upper tidal Potomac. Adjusted temperatures downward slightly in outlying areas due to light winds and low dew points. However, a notable area of mid and high level clouds associated with a shortwave trough will be moving overhead for a large portion of the night. Thus any threat for frost should be patchy in nature. Most locations will fall to the upper 30s and 40s for lows. && .KEY MESSAGES... - 1) A strong cold front brings widespread showers and thunderstorms midweek, followed by cooler temperatures. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1...A strong cold front brings widespread showers and thunderstorms midweek, followed by cooler temperatures. A shortwave trough passing through to the north could bring a few residual showers to the area on Tuesday, primarily north of the I-66 corridor. Meanwhile, a deep upper level trough centered over the Great Lakes on Wednesday will bring significantly more widespread chances for showers and thunderstorms to impact the region as it moves through the area between Wednesday and Thursday. As of right now, early QPF estimates are forecasting 0.50-1.50 inches of rain in the area by Thursday, which would be extremely beneficial given widespread drought concerns that have impacted the region for some time now. As for severe wx potential, the trends past 24 hours have shown the second area of low pressure staying south of the area across southern VA keeping the area in the cool sector minimizing the severe risk. && .AVIATION /01Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... VFR conditions are expected through Monday night. Winds southwest and light overnight. Winds becoming southwest 10 to 15 knots gusts up to 20 knots Monday. Winds southwest 15 to 20 knots gusts 25 knots Tuesday. Any shower activity should be isolated Monday and Tuesday and mainly near MRB. Widespread showers and thunderstorms Wednesday could bring sub- VFR conditions across terminals for longer periods of time. Winds southwest 10 to 20 knots gusts up to 25 knots Wednesday. Winds southwest becoming northwest 10 to 15 knots Thursday and Friday. && .MARINE... West winds will quickly pivot to south-southwest tonight with a low level jet moving overhead. With the residual cold airmass over warmer waters, this should result in some channeling the second half of the night. A Small Craft Advisory has been issued along the bay and lower Potomac from 2 AM until 11 AM. As temperatures warm and mixing increases Monday afternoon, wind gusts will increase inland. Have issued a SCA for only the middle and upper tidal Potomac for now, but additional zones may need to be added. Southerly channeling will increase along the bay Monday night, but it's possible all waters may need an SCA. SCA conditions likely Tuesday and Wednesday and could continue through the end of the week. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... Tidal anomalies rise tonight into Monday morning, with sensitive tidal locations (Annapolis) nearing minor flood stage during the high tide cycle Monday morning. && .LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... DC...None. MD...None. VA...None. WV...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 2 AM to 11 AM EDT Monday for ANZ531>534-537-539>541-543. Small Craft Advisory from noon to 7 PM EDT Monday for ANZ535- 536. && $$ DISCUSSION...ADS/AVS/LFR/KLW AVIATION...ADS/AVS/LFR/KLW MARINE...ADS/AVS/LFR/KLW