FXUS61 KLWX 030901 AFDLWX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 401 AM EST Tue Feb 3 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Delayed precipitation onset by a few hours east of the Alleghenies. Increased risk of damaging winds this weekend. && .KEY MESSAGES... - A clipper-like system will bring very light snow to the area this afternoon and this evening. - Another Arctic front arrives Friday bringing additional chances for snow, followed by bitter cold wind chills. - Arctic front may also cause damaging winds and power outages late Friday night into Saturday, gale to storm force winds over the waters, and freezing spray over ice-free waters. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1...A clipper-like system will bring very light snow to the area this afternoon and this evening. KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION... A thin layer of low clouds around 5kft has kept temperatures steady in the mid 20s overnight, which is nearly 10F warmer than the previous night. Model trends also indicate high temperatures today will be around 6F degs warmer than yesterday which would result in highs near 40F south of the Potomac River and mid 30s along the Pennsylvania border. This suggests that any snow accumulation today will have to wait until after dark. Therefore, have delayed our winter precip onset by a few hours for areas east of the Allegheny Mountains. Nothing has really changed significantly with respect to the clipper-like system passing south of the area tonight. If anything, QPF has trended lower across northern areas and mainly focused along the I-64 corridor. Given the short duration of the event, six hours at most, only a trace to around half inch of snow is expected. There is also a possibility that no precip falls at all, which is particularly true north of Washington DC. Areas south of I-64 may also be too warm for all snow and the precip may mix with rain at times or melt in contact. The snow will exit the area by daybreak Wed, likely sooner. For the Allegheny Mountains, still expecting 2 to 3 inches of accumulation. Given very marginal/borderline temperatures, uncertainty on exactly where precip falls, and expected little or no impact, no special commuting hazard statement will be issued. KEY MESSAGE 2...Another Arctic front arrives Friday bringing additional chances for snow, followed by bitter cold Arctic air. KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION... Snow showers and/or squalls are becoming increasingly likely areawide Friday afternoon and evening prior to the Arctic frontal passage. KEY MESSAGE 3...Arctic front may also cause damaging winds and power outages late Friday night into Saturday, gale to storm force winds over the waters, and freezing spray over ice-free waters. KEY MESSAGE 3 DESCRIPTION... Global models indicate strong sfc cyclonegesis over the western Atlantic in response to deepening trough over the Northeast. 00Z deterministic and ensemble guidance showed a significant upward trend in low-level winds late Fri night into Sat with mean sfc gusts above wind advisory criteria and a slight risk of wind gusts 50 kt or greater. && .AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Light snow is possible this evening which may cause some flight restrictions. Gusty winds Wed-Thu around 20 kt. Snow showers possible Fri afternoon and evening followed by sharply colder temperatures and abrupt winds likely gusting over 35 kt or stronger. && .MARINE... SCA conditions are likely Wed and Thu. Winds diminish Fri before passage of Arctic front. A sudden onset gale appears likely late Fri night with the potential for storm force winds. && .LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... DC...None. MD...Winter Weather Advisory from noon today to midnight EST tonight for MDZ509. VA...None. WV...Winter Weather Advisory from noon today to midnight EST tonight for WVZ501-505. MARINE...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...LFR/SRT AVIATION...LFR/SRT MARINE...LFR/SRT