FXUS61 KILN 211049 AFDILN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington OH 649 AM EDT Mon Sep 21 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Flood watch extended through noon. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Additional showers and thunderstorms will move across the area this morning. This may cause locally heavy rain to fall over saturated ground. 2) Cooler weather will prevail through the week. More showers will occur Tuesday night into Wednesday. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1) Low level jet ahead of an MCV will be weaken as the morning progresses. Showers and thunderstorms will continue moving across the area. Precipitable water remains around 1.8 inches and the warm cloud depth is around 4 km. So this activity will have the potential to produce more locally heavy rain, although all indications are that it should be weakening as it moves into/across the region. Nonetheless, with the ground saturated from previous rainfall, felt that it was prudent to extend the flood watch through noon. KEY MESSAGE 2) Cooler airmass will continue to settle across the area today. Short wave tracking across the country will deepen and become a closed low as it moves through the Ohio Valley on Wednesday. This will amplify an inverted surface trough along the western slopes of the Appalachians. These features will bring some showers to the area Tuesday night into Wednesday with the greater chance being in eastern counties. The closed low will still be progressive until it gets off the Atlantic coast at which point it will meander. This will result in an extended dry period for the area during the latter part of the week into the weekend. Temperatures will remain below normal. && .AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... MVFR to IFR ceilings will lower to IFR area wide. Showers and some thunderstorms will continue to move across the area early in the period. After this moves off, ceilings may lift back to MVFR in some locations. There is the potential for some more showers between 18Z and 00Z. Ceilings should drop back to IFR to LIFR after 00Z. OUTLOOK...MVFR to IFR ceilings will continue and may extend into Thursday morning. Visibility restrictions also possible Tuesday night and Wednesday. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...Flood Watch until noon EDT today for OHZ026-034-035-042>046-051>056- 060>065-070>074-077>082-088. KY...None. IN...Flood Watch until noon EDT today for INZ050-058-059-066-073-074. && $$ DISCUSSION...35 AVIATION...35