FXUS61 KILN 211043 AFDILN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington OH 643 AM EDT Sat Mar 21 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... No significant changes. && .KEY MESSAGES... KEY MESSAGE 1) Above normal temperatures will persist until a cold front moves through the region Sunday afternoon and evening. There will be a chance of thunderstorms along and behind the front. KEY MESSAGE 2) Temperatures will fall back closer to normal for early next week. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1) Above normal temperatures will persist until a cold front moves through the region Sunday afternoon and evening. There will be a chance of thunderstorms along and behind the front. In the wake of last night's cold front, the airmass is only slightly modified. This will result in high temperatures a few degrees cooler than yesterday, but still well above normal. Temperatures will soar on Sunday south of an approaching front as part of the very warm airmass in the southern/central Plains gets advected eastward (850 mb up to 18C). Not out of the question that Cincinnati could overachieve on highs and approach the record for March 22 (85 in 1907). Probability of nearing a record at Dayton or Columbus is lower because of the timing of an approaching cold front. There remain discrepancies on how quickly the front sags into the region on Sunday, but on average it appears that this will be at least to I-70 by mid to late afternoon. Warm sector will be capped, although that capping will be minimal by peak heating. Convergence will increase along the front late in the day, especially in eastern counties and that may be sufficient for convective initiation. If storms do develop, then there will be potential for severe cells, with wind and hail being the primary threats as there will be plenty of shear for storms to become organized and mid level lapse rates will be quite respectable. The window for the threat will be late afternoon through the evening. However, confidence in storms developing along the front is medium at best. There are quite a few models which suggest that any precipitation will be post-frontal. There could still be potential for hail if that were the case, but the further behind the front this occurs, the lower the threat. KEY MESSAGE 2) Temperatures will fall back closer to normal for early next week. High pressure will build in Monday and move east on Tuesday. There will be a substantial change in airmass with highs on Monday being around 30 degrees cooler than Sunday. There will be slow moderation with highs right around normal on Tuesday and a few degrees above normal on Wednesday. && .AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Stratus is approaching the Columbus area from the north. It appears that it is not going to get very far south, possibly affecting KCMH but not KLCK. Given lower confidence, do not like including IFR ceilings, but given the proximity in space and time, felt it was prudent to include for a couple of hours. Beyond that, VFR will prevail with more high and mid clouds. Winds less than 10 kt will be veering through the day from north northeast to south southwest. A low level jet will push into the region late in the period which may bring some low level wind shear to KDAY. OUTLOOK...Thunderstorms possible Sunday afternoon and evening. MVFR ceilings possible Sunday night into Monday morning. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. KY...None. IN...None. && $$ DISCUSSION... AVIATION...