FXUS61 KILN 202349

AFDILN



Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Wilmington OH

749 PM EDT Fri Mar 20 2026



.WHAT HAS CHANGED...

No significant changes.



&&



.KEY MESSAGES...

KEY MESSAGE 1) Above normal temperatures will occur through the

weekend, despite a weak cold front moving through this evening.



KEY MESSAGE 2) A better chance of showers and thunderstorms will

occur along and behind a cold front that will move through Sunday

afternoon into Sunday night. Temperatures will fall back closer to 

normal for early next week.



&&



.DISCUSSION...

KEY MESSAGE 1) Warm southwesterly flow ahead of a cold front will 

continue this afternoon and offer above normal temperatures. The 

front will quickly push east this evening, with perhaps a late-

developing storm from central Ohio south into northeast Kentucky.

The 12Z convective-allowing models were mostly dry outside a narrow

frontal band of convection on the 3km NAM. However, the latest (16Z)

HRRR develops showers and storms along the front after 00Z, mostly 

along and southeast of Interstate 71. Will continue low PoPs in this 

area. While effective bulk shear is 30-35 knots, timing leads to a 

higher probability of elevated storms (per a 02Z simulated sounding 

in Pike County Ohio), with perhaps a remnant hail risk.



Behind the front, winds will become northeasterly. This, along with a

healthy surface-based inversion could lead to some low clouds off

Lake Erie across mostly central Ohio early Saturday morning. Where 

skies can clear, there are some signals of radiation fog developing.



Surface high pressure will move quickly to the east on Saturday with

southerly flow returning by the afternoon. The southwesterly 

gradient will increase on Sunday ahead of a stronger cold front, so

gusty winds and a very warm day is expected.



KEY MESSAGE 2) A stronger cold front will sweep through the middle

Ohio Valley late Sunday into Sunday night. Guidance remains uncertain

on timing of FROPA, ranging from early evening to near midnight.

Moderate instability is expected ahead of the front during the

afternoon hours... though a CAP may limit convection. A strong wind 

field and good forcing (as compared to today's front) will increase 

the risk of severe storms if they are able to take advantage of the 

instability ahead of the front. Will continue to monitor.



&&



.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

Scattered showers are developing in portions of west-central OH this

evening. KCMH/KLCK have the best chance for a passing shower with

some embedded thunder. For now, just introduced a TEMPO group for the

first 2 hours of the taf period at those terminals to indicate SHRA

potential. Will amend as needed. 



Cold front will work its way south tonight, resulting in a rapid wind

shift to the north, as well as a brief period lower (still VFR) 

clouds. Behind the front, winds do eventually subside, which could 

help result in some MVFR vsbys as patchy BR develops. Cannot rule out

some MVFR CIGs clipping KCMH/KLCK near daybreak Friday for a few 

hours.



Have a couple extra taf lines on Friday for the wind shifting to the

east and eventually southeast during the afternoon. 



OUTLOOK...Wind gusts up to 30 kt possible Sunday. Thunderstorms 

possible Sunday afternoon and evening.



&&



.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

OH...None.

KY...None.

IN...None.



&&



$$



DISCUSSION...

AVIATION...