FXUS61 KILN 191851 AFDILN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington OH 251 PM EDT Thu Mar 19 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Added a small chance of storms Friday late afternoon into the early evening. A severe storm can't be ruled out. && .KEY MESSAGES... KEY MESSAGE 1) Above normal temperatures expected through the weekend, with a low chance of storms along a cold front on Friday. KEY MESSAGE 2) Another cold front on Sunday will bring a chance of thunderstorms with temperatures falling back closer to normal early next week. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1) Increasing southwesterly flow is expected on Friday as the pressure gradient tightens ahead of a weak cold front. The front will be weakening as it passes through, with only a hint of shower and storm development from central Ohio south into northeast Kentucky during the afternoon. The limiting factor will be the evolution of surface dewpoints. The 3K NAM has storm initiation during the evening based on SBCAPE around 500J across our east; while the HRRR keeps low level moisture mixed out and no storm development. If convection does develop, robust speed and directional shear leads to a small probability of a severe storms (thus, the SPC Marginal Threat). Weak high pressure will cross the region on Saturday, with southwesterly flow returning by the afternoon hours. These southwesterly winds will increase on Sunday as a stronger cold front approaches from the northwest late in the day. KEY MESSAGE 2) With some moisture returning to the middle Ohio Valley ahead of Sunday's cold front, models are showing some instability developing during the afternoon. Surface winds will be gusty out of the southwest. Timing of the front is still somewhat uncertain with FROPA ranging from early evening to after midnight. Will need to monitor this timing and other factors for severe potential during the evening on Sunday. Temperatures behind the front will drop to near or perhaps a bit below normal on Monday. && .AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... VFR conditions will prevail through the period. Gusty southwest winds are expected Friday starting late morning and continuing through the afternoon. OUTLOOK...MVFR to IFR ceilings and visibilities possible Friday night into Saturday morning. Wind gusts up to 30 kt possible Sunday. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. KY...None. IN...None. && $$ DISCUSSION... AVIATION...