FXUS61 KILN 191039 AFDILN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington OH 639 AM EDT Thu Mar 19 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... No significant changes. && .KEY MESSAGES... KEY MESSAGE 1) Temperatures getting back above normal through the weekend. KEY MESSAGE 2) Cold front on Sunday will bring a chance of thunderstorms with temperatures falling back closer to normal early next week. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1) Temperatures getting back above normal through the weekend. A warm front will develop across northern portions of Indiana and Ohio today with temperatures warming back above normal south of this front. The warm front will lift further north tonight and southerly low level flow will increase on Friday as the pressure gradient tightens ahead of an approaching cold front. There could be gusts of 25 to 30 mph. As the cold front moves through the area late Friday afternoon into Friday evening, some showers and possibly thunderstorms may develop down the boundary from northeast, where there is deeper lift from mid level energy, to the southwest. Best chance of any measurable precipitation will be in south central Ohio and northeast Kentucky. But even there, much of the guidance is rather scant. HREF probabilities of measurable rain are a bit higher than NBM while the REFS probabilities are a bit lower. This seems to be related to model differences in eroding a cap. It appears that some stratus and possibly fog will develop Friday night in the wake of the front which is forecast to dissipate early Saturday. The post frontal airmass will knock down temperatures just a few degrees from Friday. But warming will resume on Sunday with temperatures rising into the mid to upper 70s, although it will be breezy again, with gusts a bit higher than those on Friday. KEY MESSAGE 2) Cold front on Sunday will bring a chance of thunderstorms with temperatures falling back closer to normal early next week. Forcing looks a bit stronger with the next cold front late Sunday into Sunday evening compared to Friday's front. Once again, it appears that precipitation will be developmental along the front as it moves through the region, although with better forcing, the chance of rain is greater with the higher PoPs east and south of I-71. Joint probability of CAPE greater than 500 J/kg and bulk wind shear greater than 30 kt is meager, less than 30 percent, with that relative maximum focused near the Ohio River. Overall, any threat looks low at this point, although some of the recent AI severe weather outlooks have come in a bit more rambunctious. Airmass in the wake of this front is colder than the Friday front. So temperatures will drop back down closer to normal on Monday with little change into Tuesday. && .AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... VFR will prevail. Mid and high clouds will move off towards 18Z. There could be a few diurnal cumulus with more high clouds after 0Z. Winds will be southerly at less than 10 kt. OUTLOOK...MVFR to IFR ceilings and visibilities possible Friday night into Saturday morning. Wind gusts up to 30 kt possible Sunday. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. KY...None. IN...None. && $$ DISCUSSION... AVIATION...