FXUS61 KILN 070559 AFDILN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington OH 159 AM EDT Mon Apr 7 2025 .SYNOPSIS... One last wave of low pressure will bring precipitation to the Ohio Valley this evening. High pressure briefly builds in late tonight and early Monday, before a cold front moves through the area Monday afternoon. Drier weather and high pressure will return to the region Tuesday into Tuesday night. Much below normal temperatures are forecast through much of the week. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/... Split mid level flow with active southern stream being shunted to the southeast as energy in the northern stream drops south and carves out a trof across the Great Lakes overnight into Monday. A wave of low pressure will ripple northeast along a slow moving front tracking east thru the TN Valley. Colder air filtering into the region was causing rain showers to change to snow showers across West Central Ohio. Expect this trend (mixing with and changing to snow) to continue across the area as low level CAA continues. Pcpn will end from the west after midnight. No accumulation is expected. Drier air and some clearing should occur over the northwest late tonight. Lows tonight to range from the lower 30s over the northwest to the mid and upper 30s southeast. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/... On Monday, a trough will be found across the Great Lakes and Northeast. A cold front will move through in the afternoon. Front may be able to squeeze out a few showers especially across west-central and central Ohio. Highs will be in the 50s on Monday. Monday night, there will be another shot of cold advection, sending temperatures into the lower to mid 20s for lows. We have initiated the beginning of the spring frost/freeze season and therefore have issued a Freeze Watch. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... On Tuesday, surface high pressure pays a brief visit. Despite some sunshine, it will be chilly with highs only in the lower to mid 40s. Tuesday night will feature another cold night, with sub-freezing temperatures with decent radiational cooling. By Wednesday, high pressure moves away and another quick moving shortwave/front will bring more clouds and a chance of precipitation particularly Wednesday night and Thursday. Ohio Valley likely will remain influenced by a trough through the rest of the week. This would generally lead to unsettled conditions and below normal temperatures. Trough may start to retreat over the weekend, although confidence is low on details this weekend as sometimes these troughs linger longer than what early guidance suggests. && .AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Through sunrise, a weak ridge of high pressure will build southeast into the region. Any lingering precipitation across the east will exit. Skies will clear. However, some low clouds and/or fog could form for locations near and northwest of a KCMH-KDAY-KRID line. Will monitor this potential and will be quick to make amendments if it becomes apparent. For today, the surface ridge will exit southeast through early afternoon. A digging mid level trough and its associated low pressure and cold front will move east/southeast across the Great Lakes, with the cold front itself pushing southeast across our region this afternoon and evening. The front is a little bit moisture starved (lack of deep moisture). However, a low chance of showers could occur with frontal passage. Otherwise, VFR clouds are expected with the front, with clearing skies behind FROPA. The wind will be the biggest factor, increasing from the west, then shifting northwest, then north. Sustained winds will be around 15 knots with gusts around 25 knots. OUTLOOK...MVFR/IFR conditions possible Wednesday night into Thursday. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...Freeze Watch from late tonight through Tuesday morning for OHZ026- 034-035-042>046-051>056-060>065-070>074-077>082-088. KY...Freeze Watch from late tonight through Tuesday morning for KYZ089>100. IN...Freeze Watch from late tonight through Tuesday morning for INZ050- 058-059-066-073>075-080. && $$ SYNOPSIS...BPP NEAR TERM...AR SHORT TERM...BPP LONG TERM...BPP AVIATION...Hickman