FXUS61 KILN 070138 AFDILN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington OH 938 PM EDT Sun Apr 6 2025 .SYNOPSIS... One last wave of low pressure will bring precipitation to the Ohio Valley this evening. High pressure briefly builds in late tonight and early Monday, before a cold front moves through the area Monday afternoon. Drier weather and high pressure will return to the region Tuesday into Tuesday night. Much below normal temperatures are forecast through much of the week. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/... Split mid level flow with active southern stream being shunted to the southeast as energy in the northern stream drops south and carves out a trof across the Great Lakes overnight into Monday. A wave of low pressure will ripple northeast along a slow moving front tracking east thru the TN Valley. Colder air filtering into the region was causing rain showers to change to snow showers across West Central Ohio. Expect this trend (mixing with and changing to snow) to continue across the area as low level CAA continues. Pcpn will end from the west after midnight. No accumulation is expected. Drier air and some clearing should occur over the northwest late tonight. Lows tonight to range from the lower 30s over the northwest to the mid and upper 30s southeast. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... On Monday, a trough will be found across the Great Lakes and Northeast. A cold front will move through in the afternoon. Front may be able to squeeze out a few showers especially across west-central and central Ohio. Highs will be in the 50s on Monday. Monday night, there will be another shot of cold advection, sending temperatures into the lower to mid 20s for lows. We have initiated the beginning of the spring frost/freeze season and therefore have issued a Freeze Watch. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... On Tuesday, surface high pressure pays a brief visit. Despite some sunshine, it will be chilly with highs only in the lower to mid 40s. Tuesday night will feature another cold night, with sub-freezing temperatures with decent radiational cooling. By Wednesday, high pressure moves away and another quick moving shortwave/front will bring more clouds and a chance of precipitation particularly Wednesday night and Thursday. Ohio Valley likely will remain influenced by a trough through the rest of the week. This would generally lead to unsettled conditions and below normal temperatures. Trough may start to retreat over the weekend, although confidence is low on details this weekend as sometimes these troughs linger longer than what early guidance suggests. && .AVIATION /01Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Split mid level flow with active southern stream being shunted to the southeast as northern stream trof develops across the Great Lakes overnight into Monday. A wave of low pressure will ripple northeast along a slow moving front that continues to move away from the local area. Scattered showers will decrease thru the evening and come to an end. Ceilings in the MVFR category may briefly bump up to VFR before clearing takes place late overnight into early Monday. The degree of clearing late tonight is uncertain, if clearing does occur from the northwest (affecting locations such as KDAY) and winds become light, then fog may be possible - with a potential for low visibilities. However due to low confidence have not included this in TAFs at this time. VFR conditions to return Monday morning. As a secondary cold front sweeps thru the area Monday afternoon clouds will redevelop across the TAF sites. Have kept clouds in the VFR category but a brief period of MVFR ceilings is possible especially across the northern TAF sites. Northeast winds around 10 kts will become light from the north overnight and then northwest Monday morning. The winds will increase to around 15 kts Monday afternoon with gusts up to 25-27 kts with the frontal passage. OUTLOOK...MVFR conditions possible into Monday evening. MVFR/IFR conditions possible Wednesday night into Thursday. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...Freeze Watch from late Monday night through Tuesday morning for OHZ026-034-035-042>046-051>056-060>065-070>074-077>082-088. KY...Freeze Watch from late Monday night through Tuesday morning for KYZ089>100. IN...Freeze Watch from late Monday night through Tuesday morning for INZ050-058-059-066-073>075-080. && $$ SYNOPSIS...BPP NEAR TERM...AR SHORT TERM...BPP LONG TERM...BPP AVIATION...AR