FXUS61 KILN 031708

AFDILN



Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Wilmington OH

1208 PM EST Tue Feb 3 2026



.WHAT HAS CHANGED...

Continue to adjust the snowfall forecast with locally higher amounts.



&&



.KEY MESSAGES...

1) Accumulating snow across southeast Indiana, southern 

Ohio, and northern Kentucky into the evening leading to impacts on 

the evening commute.



2) Clipper moves across the area Friday with light snow 

accumulations possible.



3) Frigid temperatures to start the weekend.



&&



.DISCUSSION...

KEY MESSAGE 1) 



Snow continues across area this afternoon as a weak wave leads to 

persistent low level frontogenesis ahead of a cold front. There has 

not yet been a clear signal for a stationary, very narrow, heavier 

snow band as some CAM guidance was hinting at. However, there 

continues to be periods of more moderate snow concentrated from I-

70 on south where the Winter Weather Advisory remains in place. An

area of 1 to 3 inches of snow still seems likely. 



Temperatures in the upper 20s to lower 30s along with solar 

insolation have kept travel difficulties relatively limited for now. 

There could be increasing impacts especially as the sun angle gets 

lower later this afternoon before snow moves out. Continue to use 

caution if driving as slippery conditions are possible during the 

evening commute. Snow ends this evening from north to south. 



KEY MESSAGE 2) 



An upper level shortwave trough and cold front approach the area on 

Friday. Ahead these features, WAA snowfall is possible across the 

area especially Friday morning. With light QPF forecast, and warming 

temperatures toward and above the freezing mark by the afternoon, 

overall snowfall totals should remain fairly light. The best chances 

for light accumulations are in central Ohio. Warming temperatures 

may also help keep any travel impacts on the lighter side especially 

during the afternoon. 



KEY MESSAGE 3) 



Another blast of arctic air moves in behind the aforementioned cold 

front on Friday night. Both Saturday and Sunday may feature periods 

with wind chills near or below zero especially during the morning 

hours. While confidence is fairly high on these cold temperatures 

occurring, confidence is also high that this is short-lived. More 

moderate temperatures and upper level ridging builds next week 

across the Ohio Valley. 



&&



.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...

Snowfall continues across the area this afternoon. IFR and some LIFR 

visibilities are expected to persist at the Cincinnati sites and 

KILN where snow is likely to be heavier. MVFR visibilities may 

persist at the sites along I-70 where snowfall is expected to remain 

a bit lighter. MVFR ceilings are forecast with the ongoing snowfall 

although some IFR ceilings are possible at the Cincinnati sites. 

After the snow ends this evening, guidance is all over the place in 

terms of ceilings. MVFR is most likely to occur, but some VFR breaks 

are possible. The TAFs include MVFR since the post frontal 

environment should be supportive of lowered ceilings into Wednesday.



Light and variable winds shift to the north by this evening and 

persist through the rest of the TAF period. 



OUTLOOK...Light snow is possible Friday.



&&



.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

OH...Winter Weather Advisory until 10 PM EST this evening for OHZ070>074-

     077>082-088.

KY...Winter Weather Advisory until 10 PM EST this evening for KYZ089>100.

IN...Winter Weather Advisory until 10 PM EST this evening for INZ066-

     073>075-080.



&&



$$



DISCUSSION...

AVIATION...