FXUS61 KILN 030622 AFDILN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington OH 122 AM EST Tue Feb 3 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Continue to adjust the snowfall forecast with locally higher amounts. Additional changes are possible to the forecast and headlines over the next couple of hours. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Accumulating snow across southeast Indiana, southern Ohio, and northern Kentucky Tuesday into Tuesday evening leading to impacts on the evening commute. 2) Clipper moving across the area Friday with light snow accumulations possible and frigid temperatures to start the weekend. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1) Accumulating snow across southeast Indiana, southern Ohio, and northern Kentucky Tuesday into Tuesday evening leading to impacts on the evening commute. Forecast: No major changes to the forecast or the headlines as of this primary forecast update, however, this may change over the next few hours as confidence increases on the potential for heavier snowfall amounts within localized snow bands. This area is marked by the current forecast generally in the 3" range. This stretches from near the Cincinnati metro and eastward along the Ohio River. Any upgrade to a winter storm warning would be in this area. Elsewhere, an advisory will remain in place for snowfall amounts of 1 to 3". Analysis: Latest regional radar is already showing signs of weak frontogenesis over Indiana and eastern Illinois ahead of the approaching low pressure system. These light radar signatures are ahead of the approaching shortwave, which is featured by a band of snow from Iowa to Illinois. As the shortwave pivots through the Ohio Valley today, frontogenesis in the lower levels of the atmosphere will combine with jet stream dynamics provided by the right-entrance region of the upper level jet. Additionally, forecast soundings show lift occurring within the DGZ, producing large snowflakes. In the lower levels of the atmosphere where temperatures are close to melting, these large flakes are likely to stick together, resulting in effective accumulation despite any melting/compaction over time. Noted well in previous discussions, these combining factors will set up a scenario for locally heavy snowfall rates in bands throughout the late morning and afternoon. HREF guidance suggests snowfall rates of a half inch to three- quarters of an inch per hour at times. Despite surface temperatures near freezing and solar radiation, area roadways would likely struggle to remain wet in these higher rates. In locations where the rates are not as heavy, impacts to roadways may not be as enhanced. Snow begins to end from northwest to southeast throughout the afternoon, pulling completely out of the area by this evening. Temperatures continue to drop into the evening and overnight hours, which means some roads may remain hazardous into Wednesday morning. KEY MESSAGE 2) Clipper moving across the area Friday with light snow accumulations possible and frigid temperatures to start the weekend. While a trend toward less snow has been mentioned in previous discussions regarding this system, recent guidance has trended stronger with the shortwave dropping through the Great Lakes Thursday night into Friday. Accumulating snow certainly remains on the table for much of the area, with the tri-state/Cincinnati metro seeing less snow compared to central parts of Ohio. A 2 to 3" snowfall event would be likely in this area if trends continue. Another blast of frigid air would follow this system, with both days of the weekend seeing below zero wind chills. While confidence is fairly high on these frigid temperatures occurring, confidence is also fairly high that this would be a short-lived situation as deep layer ridging builds into the central CONUS early next week. && .AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... MVFR CIGs are occurring early this morning ahead of the next system. Confidence remains high on snowfall impacts to CVG/LUK/ILN, with lower confidence at DAY, and especially CMH/LCK. Expect IFR/LIFR restrictions in snow, with lingering MVFR CIGs into the evening and overnight hours. Winds are light and variable as the low pressure moves south of the area. OUTLOOK...MVFR CIGs will linger into Wednesday. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...Winter Weather Advisory from 7 AM this morning to 10 PM EST this evening for OHZ070>074-077>082-088. KY...Winter Weather Advisory from 7 AM this morning to 10 PM EST this evening for KYZ089>100. IN...Winter Weather Advisory from 7 AM this morning to 10 PM EST this evening for INZ066-073>075-080. && $$ DISCUSSION...McGinnis AVIATION...McGinnis